Monday Morning Update

Monday, May 26th 2014, 4:30 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning and welcome to Memorial Day! 

We've been tracking a very slow moving upper level storm system for several days, and this feature continues to be the main item of interest for our weather.  Scattered shower and storm chances will remain in the forecast for the next several days before this system finally loses its influence on our area. 

 Temps today will remain in the lower 80s with southeast winds around 10 mph.  Localized rain cooled air this afternoon will produce some mid-70s at times.  The temperatures will not change much during the next few days from the ongoing forecast.  Morning lows in the mid-60s will be followed by highs in the mid-80s Wednesday through Saturday with a gradual "uptick" in temps.  The "cooler" day will be Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s near 80.  

The low is near Eastern New Mexico this morning but is slowly getting closer to the state during the next 36 hours.  The net impact should be an increase in the coverage of scattered showers and storms.  There will eventually be a few areas of moderate to heavy rainfall during the next 36 hours, more than likely across the southeastern third of the state.  We've got a healthy 70% chance of showers or storms in the forecast both today and Tuesday, but just like the last few days, some folks will miss out on the rainfall.

 Most of the showers and storms have been dissipating each day with the loss of daytime heating.  But as the low draws closer to the state, evening and overnight activity will be likely near and underneath the upper air feature.  Overnight showers or storms may remain west of the area into Tuesday morning and could be near part of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  

 No organized severe weather is expected across our immediate area with this system.  But due to the high water value in the atmosphere, wet downbursts of 45 to 65 mph can't be ruled out in a few spots.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning would be possible this afternoon and early evening with any stronger cells.  Some strong storms could also produce hail, but the wet microburst would be the main threat.  

The low should eventually slide southeast of the state sometime Wednesday night into Thursday, but the air mass will remain moist into the weekend.  A few scattered afternoon storms will be possible by the end of the week into the weekend.  We'll more than likely carry a "pop" for almost every day in the 7 day period.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 2:23pm.  The normal daily average high is 82 and the low is 62.  Our daily records include a high of 94 from both 1926 and 1920.  The daily record low is 44 from 1925.  

We received 1.41 inches of rainfall yesterday as Tulsa International Airport.  This brings our year to date total to 7.04 inches.  The normal precip expected to date is 15.37 which leaves a deficit of -8.33 inches.   

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on a few Tulsa metro " Clear Channel Radio Stations" including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone