After a nice but cool weekend, we're expecting a pattern change this week. This will bring warm and windy conditions back to the southern plains, including the northern OK and southern Kansas vicinity. A layer of warm air aloft (the cap) will strengthen over most of the state for the next few days keeping us dry. The pattern will begin to modify by the end of the week allowing some low storm chances to return.
The upper air pattern will result in an expanding mid-level ridge of high pressure. The main trough with cold air that has been positioned across the central portion of the nation this past week will continue to weaken and move northeast away from the region. Warmer air will be invading the area today through Thursday with both morning lows and afternoon highs moving back above the normal averages. We're expecting morning lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 80s to near 90 by the middle of the week. This afternoon's highs will top out in the 83 to 85 degree range with strong south winds.
A few of the models give far southeastern Kansas a slight chance of a shower or storm early Wednesday morning, but this will remain north of our area as a surface boundary stalls across central Kansas.
By the Thursday and Friday period, a low pressure area in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be moving closer to the southwestern US. A few weak impulses will travel around the base of the trough and have a small impact on western OK with a few storms in this area by Friday.
This weekend, the mid-level ridge will slide east and weaken. The upper low will slowly move eastward but remain well west of our area. Our storm chances will also slowly increase this weekend into early next week but the chances will remain low on the 7 day planner. We see no major signals for a significant severe weather event, but there will be a chance for a few strong to severe storms during this extended period. This weekend, the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend, will be a big weekend on area lakes. Be sure and have plans ready to seek sturdy shelter incase thunderstorms approach your camp site during the holiday. Severe thunderstorm winds can cause damage to camping trailers, RV's, and of course tents.
Early next week the GFS and EURO differ on this position and strength of the upper air low, but both sets have the feature near the state. Our storm chances "should" increase around into the first part of next week, but we're many days out. Things do and will change. We'll update when needed.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 4:56pm.
The normal daily average high is 80 and the low is 60.
Our daily record high is 96 from 2006 and the low is 46 from 1968.
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