Still Cool, But Not For Much Longer.


Thursday, May 15th 2014, 6:42 pm
By: News On 6


As seen in a related story: http://www.newson6.com/story/25526160/large-area-of-ne-oklahoma-covered-by-drought , drought continues to rear its ugly head across the state according to the just released drought monitor. Unfortunately, there is little in the way of any short-term relief as only spotty showers/storms are expected through the coming weekend and little or no mention of rain for much of next week. However, the few showers/storms that have popped up today will be locally intense for a few locations, but these will be quickly falling apart this evening leaving us with generally fair skies for the overnight hours.

Together with light winds and a relatively dry, cool air mass in place, that will add up to another very cool start to our day Friday. Morning lows will generally be in the low-mid 40s with a few upper 30s mixed in….very cool for this time of year and close to record levels. In fact, a frost advisory is in effect for neighboring Missouri tonight.

As the sun gets higher in the sky and another disturbance in the NW flow aloft approaches, clouds will be on the increase during the day Friday which despite a light SE wind should hold daytime highs to the lower 70s, again well below normal. Another round of showers/storms will be possible during the overnight hours of Friday night and into the morning hours of Saturday as the upper level wave passes overhead. This is not a severe weather set-up although some small hail will be possible.

That will be followed by a mostly dry day for the rest of Saturday, but with light NE to E winds and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will struggle to get much above 70 after starting off in the upper 40s. Sunday will see a return to gusty SE winds of 15-25 mph, a slight chance of a few showers/storms, and daytime highs reaching the mid 70s after starting off in the 50s that morning. Keep in mind, a normal daytime high at this time of year is around 80.

Stronger southerly winds are then expected for Monday and much of the following week along with drier, warmer air aloft spreading over the state. The presence of the warm, dry air aloft will act as a lid countering the very warm and more humid air at the surface that those strong southerly winds will bring in. As a result, much of next week looks to be very warm, windy, and dry.

However , notice the 8-14 day outlook maps on the right. The longer range guidance looks promising for a much more unsettled weather pattern setting up along about the Memorial Day weekend time frame and extending into that following week. If that does indeed materialize, the potential will exist for some locally heavy rainfall over much of the state as well as a threat of severe storms.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot