Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, May 8th 2014, 4:28 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're tracking an opportunity for thunderstorms this morning and this afternoon.  Some of these may be eventually be strong to severe.  A powerful upper level system is currently located to our NW with a surface dry line established across far western Oklahoma.  Southerly surface flow continues to bring low-level moisture across Texas into eastern Oklahoma setting the stage for thunderstorms chances today and tonight. Afternoon high temperatures should reside in the mid to upper 70's along with south winds at 10 to 25 miles per hour. 

A few strong to severe storms developed last night across South Western and Central Oklahoma. These storms moved north east and gradually weekend through the early morning hours. High wind warnings were required for portions of northern OK and southern Kansas this morning to the decaying thunderstorms.  

Later this morning additional thunderstorms will develop and move into the region.  Some of these could be severe. The main threats would be very large hail and damaging winds, but in isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. These storms will continue through the early afternoon and evening hours as they move eastward. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest this afternoon and tonight bring in additional scattered showers the storms to portions of northern Oklahoma late tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Friday. The cold front is expected to pass the northern third of the state early Friday, and then move across far south eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas during the afternoon. Later Friday afternoon, a few strong to severe storms will be possible across far south eastern Oklahoma. The boundary is expected to stall south of our area Friday night across far NE Texas.  The rest of the weekend forecast is based on a low confidence factor. 

The computer model data continues to offer different solutions regarding the weekend.  The NAM brings the boundary back across our region Saturday evening with a chance for scattered storms.  The Euro model redevelops this front north of the state into central Kansas it offers very little chance for shower in a thunderstorm activity until Sunday night into Monday. Regardless, storm chances will remain for part of the weekend. But the exact forecast remains highly speculative at this moment. We do however think another round a strong to severe storms will eventually be possible when the cold front moves southward by Sunday night into Monday.   

The temperature forecast for the next 48 hours will be closer to our normal average with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s or lower 60s and daytime highs in the upper 70s. 

The temperature this weekend will be slightly above the seasonal average with afternoon highs in the mid-80s. 

We think a minor cool down is a possibility for a few days next week with highs in the upper 70's for afternoon highs. 

In summary, storm chances will remain today and this afternoon. Some of these could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging with the primary threat but in a tornado cannot be ruled out. As always, remain aware of your weather surroundings. Remember severe weather is normal during the spring time in eastern Oklahoma.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 88 recorded at 2:48pm.

The average high temperature is 78.  The average low temperature is 57.

Our daily records include a high of 97 from 1918 and a low of 37 from 1938. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a safe day! 

Alan Crone