Thursday Morning Update

We're tracking some scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning across eastern OK and southern Kansas.  A cold font will move across the northern third of the state this morning and across eastern OK by midday taking showers and storms out of the region into western Arkansas.  Highs today will move into the lower or mid 70s along with north winds around 20 mph this afternoon, but strong winds around 30 to 45 mph will be possible for a short period this morning.  After a quiet Friday, the weekend features a strong storm system nearing the central and southern plains.  Thunderstorm chances will increase, and some severe weather is a possibility.  

The front will continue to move southeast this morning, but for the next few hours, scattered showers and storms will be near the region.  This boundary will move south of the state, stall, and then move northward Friday night into Saturday morning.  Some data has suggested a few early Saturday morning storms will be possible as warm moist air surges northward over the area.  Other model solutions keep the area dry.  We'll continue to keep a slight mention for a shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning, and then the focus will remain west of the area for most of the day.   

Saturday the instability and convective potential energy will increase during the afternoon into the evening hours.  A strong storm system in the upper levels will be slowly moving into the 4 corners area.  A dry line is expected to sharpen up across the far western OK vicinity by Saturday afternoon.  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of these features Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across western and part of central OK.  All modes of severe weather would be possible to our west, but we anticipate dry conditions for most of Eastern OK for Saturday, other than the very slight chance of an early morning storm.  

Saturday night into Sunday, some thunderstorm activity will more than likely remain overnight and could move into eastern OK pre-dawn Sunday.  The severe threat, despite the late night and early morning hours would remain.   

By Sunday afternoon the dry line and associated surface low will be advancing rapidly into central OK.  Additional thunderstorms would develop near I-35 or eastern OK and have the potential to be severe.  All modes of severe weather would be possible.   

Next week the main upper level low will be near the Missouri Valley for a few days keeping our weather pattern unsettled with shower chances and much cooler air.   There remain some differences in the exact positioning of the upper low and this may result in some changes regarding the precipitation chances early next week.  But the trend of cooler air will remain solid with north winds and temps below the seasonal average.   

As always, remain weather-aware and have a plan incase severe weather threatens your area this weekend.   

The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 84 recorded at 4:24pm.

The normal daily average high is 74 and low is 52.

Our daily records include a high of 91 from 1975 and low of 32 from 2013.  

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You'll hear the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.  And locally on numerous Clear Channel Radio stations in Tulsa including, KMOD, The Buzz, The Beat, and The Twister. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV