It's a big holiday weekend and the weather just might cooperate for outdoor plans – for the most part at least. Saturday, the winds will be "blowin' and a goin'" as some of my colleagues say, but the skies will be partly sunny and the temperatures will be mild. Easter Sunday, though, might be hit or miss.
Another storm system is pushing across the Southwest and will begin to cloud up our skies late in the day Saturday. Aside from an elevated fire danger, no weather issues are anticipated for the first half of the weekend. Moisture returns on Sunday, keeping us predominantly cloudy (although there might be a few breaks in the clouds for sunrise services). As the day progresses, showers and a few thunderstorms will try to progress from western and central Oklahoma. By afternoon, they could be widespread, but a constant rain is not anticipated. Enough instability will be in place for a few strong to severe storms, although the highest risk will likely set up further west near any frontal/dry line boundaries. The timeline for rain is show in the first several graphics.
This is not a very powerful system from a dynamics standpoint. Deep layer wind shear, necessary for the formation of supercell thunderstorms, will be weak. Basically, the winds in the jet stream won't be all that strong and not allow many storms to maintain their strength for long. We need the rain, though, and this could bring it to parts of Green Country by later in the day Sunday and into Monday.
The actual cold front will push through the region on Monday and bring another focus for showers and a few storms. Once again, the severe threat is low, but could be an issue for a few parts of southeast Oklahoma. If you've got an Easter egg hunt, picnic, family outing, etc, planned on Sunday, the chance of rain isn't high enough to cancel it necessarily. However, it would be wise to keep rain gear on hand. And as is always a good rule of thumb, if thunder roars, go indoors! Once again, Sunday evening is the most likely time for showers and a few storms in our part of the state.
Beyond the holiday weekend, we dry out and continue to warm up. This Easter system brings no real cool-down. In fact, the warming trend begins Tuesday and by Wednesday, gusty south winds and sunshine will push our readings well into the 80s. Another stronger storm system may affect us by later in the work week, and this one could bring severe weather. However, moisture return has been fairly limited so far this season, and that could determine if we see widespread storms or a few anemic showers instead.
In the meantime, have a blessed Easter! We'll keep you updated on any changes to the rain and storm threat. Be sure to follow me on Twitter, fellow Tweeps (@GroganontheGO) and like my page on Facebook!