Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, April 16th 2014, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning. 

We're much warmer this morning for most of the area compared to yesterday's freezing temps across the state.  A few locations across extreme northwestern Arkansas and extreme southeastern OK may be flirting with some freezing temps or frost, but most of the area is in good shape this morning.  

Strong south winds will continue to increase throughout the day in the range of 15 to 30 mph as the next upper level wave slides across the inter-mountain region.  This wave will help to shove a minor cold front into the area Thursday night into Friday morning with a chance for a few showers.  The instability and convective potential will be very low.  No severe weather is expected.  Very little thunder should occur in northern Ok but a few rumbles can't be ruled out across the southern third of the state IF the activity can persist into these areas.  This morning's data is less impressive regarding the actual chance of precip for the area.  We currently have a healthy 60% pop for the period and this may be too high.  At this point, I'll keep a 60% pop for the area Thursday afternoon and evening, but I'll make a last minute air-time decision regarding the pop and may bring this down.   

The next system will arrive Saturday night into Sunday with increasing low level moisture into the state.  This increase of moisture combined with the system could produce some strong to severe storms in a few spots.  The overall confidence for this system nearing the area continues to increase.  But the specific synoptic scale set up is not quite the same confidence level.  The timing this point would support increasing storm chances during the morning hours and then again during the late afternoon and evening hours.  If this is the case, Easter will not be a wash-out, but you'll have to pick and choose your time-periods for outdoor activities as the event unfolds.  Both sets (GFS and EURO) suggest some left-overs early Monday morning.  I'll probably add some pops for the Monday morning period.   

Temps today will move into the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Thursday the temps could be all over the place depending upon the amount and location of any shower activity.   I'll place the Tulsa temp at 66 for Thursday afternoon but this is subject to change.  

Friday starts in the lower 40s and finishes around 70.  Mild weather will remain Saturday with highs in the upper 70s and Sunday looks like a lower to mid-70s day.  The temps should support a gradual warming trend into early next week.  

Despite the model output for next week, I think we're looking at increasing storm chances by the middle to end of next week as the pattern becomes more amplified.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 63 recorded at 4:09pm.

The low was 30 recorded at 4:16am.

The normal daily average high is 72 and the low is 49.

Our daily records include a high of l93 from 1982 and low of 31 from 1953. 

You're going to hear my forecast on numerous Clear Channel Tulsa radio stations this morning along with state-wide affiliates of the Oklahoma Radio News Network.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone