Tuesday Morning Update

A few scattered showers may still occur today to our east, but the chance in the Tulsa metro will be very low.  Locations along the OK-Arkansas state line vicinity will see a 20 to 30% chance of showers for the next few hours.  Gusty northwest winds will be common with highs in the lower to mid-60s.  

The upper air pattern is expected to make a change after today.  We'll move from a northwest flow aloft to a quasi-zonal (west to east) flow for the middle of the week.  This will allow warmer air to arrive Wednesday into Thursday before a weak boundary attempts to slide southward Thursday night into Friday.  It doesn't appear this boundary will pass too far south of the Tulsa area, but there could be a small shower or storm chance Friday across extreme northeastern OK or southeastern Kansas.  This chance will remain near or less than 10%.  We'll keep this out of the big 7 day planner graphic for the morning update.  

The pattern will support another stronger system nearing the state Saturday evening into Sunday.  Low level moisture will be near the region.  Strong to severe storm probabilities will increase as this system nears the state.  The higher pops will be confined during the Sunday time period with highs Saturday in the mid-70s and upper 60s or lower 70s during the day Sunday.   

The models, both GFS and EURO, are suggesting some cooler air for next Monday.  The EURO is much colder with the intrusion and would set the stage for some Tuesday morning frost or freezing temps in a few locations.  The GFS is not quite as cold, but would still offer some cooler than normal temps for the first part of next week.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 66 recorded at 1:22pm.

The normal daily average high is 70 and the low is 47.

The daily records include a high of 89 from 2011 and a low of 26 from 2007. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be on numerous Clear Channel Radio stations this morning with the weather including KMOD and The Twister! 

I'll also be discussing our forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a safe day. 

Alan Crone