Monday Morning Update

Monday, March 31st 2014, 4:43 am
By: Alan Crone

Due to some inter-office work-flow issues, I'll need to be brief this morning with the update.   

We're moving into an active weather pattern this week with a few chances for severe weather.  All modes of severe weather will be possible by the middle of the week.  A few showers or storms will be possible this morning as a cold front slowly moves southward but severe weather is not expected this morning.  Afternoon highs are expected in the 70s with south winds shifting to the north later tonight.  

Some of the Hi-res models are depicting some scattered showers or t-storms developing near the area this morning and moving eastward.  The coverage will remain low if this occurs, and our current pop of 30% seems like a good handle on the situation.  The actual cold front shouldn't move southward until later today.  This means our highs should move into the mid-70s with mostly south winds before shifting from the northeast later today. 

This boundary will stall later tonight before moving northward as a warm front Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  This will occur as a strong upper level system nears the southern plains and gusty south winds will return as the pressure falls to the west. A few storms would be possible across southwestern OK and northern TX Tuesday afternoon or early evening, while additional elevated storms may be possible pre-dawn Wednesday across extreme northern OK into Kansas.  This will occur as warm moist air is lifted northward across/over a warm front retreating northward early Wednesday morning.  The main threat for this activity will be large hail.  The locations should mainly occur north of the state, but we'll be in the running for pre-dawn Wednesday for a few hours across extreme northern OK.   

 Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to finally stream northward Wednesday into Thursday with 60 degree dew points in place before a cold front and dry line sweeps across the state.  Strong dynamics combined with abundant moisture will yield parameters capable of producing all modes of severe weather Wednesday into Thursday including some tornado potential Thursday.  Some capping issues could limit some of the Wednesday probabilities, but we'll not make any changes to the current pops ( 60%) for this forecast cycle.  The storm system will move across the state Thursday night ending the threat of showers or storms after the early Friday morning period.  Another system may be near the state Sunday.    

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 4:07pm.

The normal daily average high is 67 and low is 44.

Our daily records include a high of 96 from 1974 and a low of 24 from 1926.

You'll find me on Facebook and twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone