Friday Morning Update

Friday, March 28th 2014, 4:31 am
By: Alan Crone

The cold front passed over the area last night and is located south of the Tulsa area this morning across far southern OK.  A surface wave is expected to develop near the boundary this morning across part of Texas with an upper level disturbance approaching the state by midday.  These features will contribute to another chance of showers or storms across east-central OK and west Ark with a small window for surface based severe storms across far southeastern OK.  We discussed this probability yesterday and the scenario hasn't changed too much but the probability has increased.  A few severe storms would be possible this afternoon across extreme southeastern OK from near or east of Durant to the Broken Bow area.  Higher chances will remain more southward across part of Northeast TX and northwestern Louisiana.  Scattered storms will be located along the I-40 corridor from near or east of Lake Eufaula, northward to near or southeast of Tulsa, and eastward to near Ft Smith.  This corridor will be located on the top side of the surface low anchored across part of Texas.  Regardless of the different locations for activity today, the overall probability will remain near 30% to 40% for the Tulsa metro and 50% for the I-40 corridor region. A 60% pop will be carried for extreme southeastern OK. 

We'll see increasing clouds this morning and becoming cloudy for much of the day.  Highs may range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s across eastern OK. 

The front and surface wave will slide away from the state later tonight allowing a nice and cool Saturday.  Highs will reach the mid or upper 60s after morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.  North winds will be around 10 mph for most of the day before backing out of the east late Saturday evening. 

Sunday will begin a windy and warm time period with south winds increasing speeds from 20 to 35 mph.  Highs should move to near the mid-70s by late afternoon with mostly sunny conditions.  

A surface boundary will slide southward Monday morning bringing a small window for a shower or two across the OK-Kansas state line region.  The slight chance for Monday will be represented by a 10 to 20% pop on the 7 day planner.  The data today suggest Monday may remain with south winds for most of the day.  IF this is true, our temps would be in the 70s.  At this point, we'll keep a mid-70 on the map. 

This boundary will slide southward and stall Monday evening across part of north TX as the next strong upper level system drops closer to the four corners area.  Tuesday this front will begin lifting northward as a warm front with moisture streaming across the region.   A few showers or storms will be possible but severe weather will be unlikely.   

Tuesday night into Wednesday a powerful upper level trough will draw closer to the state.  A surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across northwestern OK Wednesday and move northeast with time by Thursday morning.  This set up will support severe weather potential for the region Wednesday into Thursday based on pattern recognition. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 81 recorded at 4:08pm.

The normal daily average high is 66 and the low is 44.

Our daily records include a high of 90 from 1963 and a low of 17 from 1931. 

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 Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone