Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, March 27th 2014, 4:42 am

The next in a series of strong upper level waves will move into the area this afternoon bringing a threat for a few storms to extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas.  A few storms may be severe.  Highs today will reach the mid to upper 70s with south to southwest winds through afternoon in the 20 to 25 mph range. 

Yesterday's rain was much appreciated.  Light amounts were received across eastern OK with highs in the 50s followed by rain-cooled 40s by late yesterday afternoon.  A strong upper level wave will approach the area this afternoon bringing another slight chance of thunderstorms to eastern OK and critically high fire danger issues across the west-central and southwestern portions of the state. 

A surface cold front is currently located well northwest of the state this morning.  A surface area of low pressure is located across northeastern Colorado and will move across Kansas rapidly this afternoon. A dry line will develop near western and central OK moving eastward by early afternoon.  Low level moisture in the form of 50 degree dew points are expected across eastern OK with low to mid 60s along Northeast TX.  As the dry line surges eastward by midday, the strong winds aloft will move across northern OK into southwestern Missouri by late evening.  A few thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern third of the state, basically along and east of highways 69-75.  We will include a slight pop for the Tulsa metro early this afternoon at 20%, but pops will be higher for the more eastward locations of the state.  Locations along the Ok-Arkansas state line corridor will have a slightly higher chance of storms.  If storms form, the main threat appears to be some hail and damaging winds.  The parameters may support super-cellular formation.   The data cannot resolve small scale and local influences, so it is possible the winds may allow some better convergence along the dry line and more directional shear than currently modeled.  So, we'll need to mention the tornado potential but it remains low.  I still feel the main severe weather threat will be limited to some hail and damaging wind gusts with a very small number of storms in our area.  A few of the RAP runs support timing of a few storms around 2pm to 8pm, and the NSSL 4k WRK would offer a start time around 3pm, but again, very few storms.  

The surface cold front will move across northern OK by early afternoon before stalling along theI-40 corridor region of east-central OK.  A new and broad surface area of low pressure may attempt to develop across part of TX Friday morning.  If this does occur, a very small window of additional severe storm development would be possible along the Red River Valley East of Durant for places like Hugo and Broken Bow.  This Friday probability remains low.  Additionally, if this scenario occurs, a few showers and elevated non-severe storms would be possible along the I-40 corridor of east central OK into the west Ark vicinity near Ft Smith.  Again, this scenario remains low and will be represented by a 20% pop for Friday.  

The weekend continues to appear cool and mild Saturday with highs in the 60s and windy and warm Sunday with highs in the 70s.  Strong south winds will occur Sunday in response to the next strong upper level system moving near the area early next week.  Most data support a surface boundary sliding across the state Monday with only a 10% chance of a shower or storm Monday morning along the Ok-Kansas state line.  The winds would be from the northwest Monday afternoon with highs in the 60s. 

Tuesday into Wednesday, the next system will develop.  Strong southeast winds Tuesday would begin the process of transporting moisture back into the state in advance of this system arriving either Tuesday or Wednesday  into Thursday.  There would also be a threat of some strong to severe storms with this system for the central and eastern third of the state by the middle of next week depending upon the quality and depth of low level moisture return. Typically but early April, moisture begins to surge northward setting the stage for more strong to severe thunderstorm potential.  Stay tuned! 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 54 at 12:11pm.

The normal daily average high is 66 and the low is 43.

Our daily records include a high of 88 from both 1956 and 1910.  The daily record low is 13 from 1913. 

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Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone