Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, March 18th 2014, 4:29 am
By: Alan Crone

I didn't do very well with yesterday's temps in NE OK!  The winds remained from the northeast longer than I anticipated and the highs were short of the forecasted mark.  I was shooting for a high of 60 and we only hit 56.  Let's see how today works out.  I'm hoping to hit the lower 70s despite a dry-line and frontal passage later in the day.  No showers or storms will be anticipated with the frontal passage in our area later tonight.   

The upper air flow remains progressive.  The main belt of the westerlies remains north and removed from the southern plains.  The pattern will bring a stout looking upper level system over the central plains today with a surface low moving across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska.  More winter weather is forecasted along and north of the surface low including 5 to 12 inches of snow across the Midwestern U.S.   A dry line will trail southward across Oklahoma and will move across the state later today.  This evening a cold front will move across the state but low level moisture will be absent.  The only hope for a few showers or storms will reside in far southeastern OK or better yet across NE Texas and southeastern Arkansas.  

As the surface low deepens and moves across the central plains today the surface wind speeds will be increasing in the 20 to 35 mph range from the southwest and then from the northwest behind the frontal passage.  Despite the weekend rains, the fire danger will increase as the top soil quickly dries and the dead-dormant vegetation remains as an efficient fuel for wild fire.  A fire weather watch is posted for our area. 

 The Wednesday weather looks great but cool.  Morning lows in the 30s will be followed by highs in the lower 60s as a surface ridge of high pressure centers over NE OK.  Wind speeds will be around 10 mph from the northwest by the midday to afternoon. 

As the ridge slides eastward Thursday morning, a new surface low is expected to develop across the southeastern Colorado area allowing gusty south winds across Oklahoma.  Some low level moisture is likely to move northward by Thursday night.  Model data support dew point temps in the 50s and lower 60s from the Texoma region into portions of eastern OK by Friday afternoon as the next surface front slides southward.  The boundary is expected to move across the deeper moisture content Friday night producing some thunderstorm activity.   We'll keep the pops at 30% for the evening hours.  

This boundary is expected to slide southward away from the state by pre-dawn Saturday.  I don't think I'll carry any pops for the Saturday period even though some will be likely just southeast of our area of concern across the Red River Valley. 

The extended data support an active pattern during the next 5 to 10 days but the question of quality low level moisture will remain until we see several days of sustained southerly flow.  The temps may remain on the cool side for a few days next week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 56 recorded at 4:32pm.

The normal daily average high is now 63 and low is 41.

Our daily records include a high of 99 from 1907 and a low of 12 from 1923. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hours. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone