Friday Morning Update

Friday, March 14th 2014, 4:44 am

Good morning.  We're tracking a storm system that will bring rain and storm chances to the state Saturday.  Highs today are expected in the lower70s with south winds for most of the day.  Blustery, cold conditions are likely Sunday with a rain-snow mix across far eastern OK.  More spring-like weather will arrive next week.  

The short term supports nice weather for most of today.  Highs will move into the upper 60s and lower 70s by the afternoon with a sun-cloud mix.  A weak boundary will arrive late this afternoon and evening with a wind shift across northern OK by afternoon.   The upper level wave currently to our west will move into the area during the next 36 hours causing a surface low to develop as rain-storms spread into the area Saturday. 

The timing of the system should allow activity Saturday morning across the southern-southwestern portion of the state before spreading northeast with time during the late afternoon and evening.  This arrival time should allow Saturday's highs to move into the mid or upper 60s before the precipitation moves into northern OK.  The latest data will support some thunder across northern and eastern OK during the event, but the greatest potential for severe weather will remain southward from the Red River Valley into east or northeast Texas with hail and wind the primary threat.  

Sunday morning the storm system may be slowly exiting the eastern OK area.  This means we may continue with some showers early Sunday morning for a few hours near Tulsa before the precipitation moves away into eastern OK as dry and cooler air spread southward with gusty north winds across central OK.  The data this morning is indicating falling temps Sunday with morning readings in the mid-40s and afternoon temps in the upper 30s or lower 40s.  There will remain a slight possibility of some rain mixing with snow across extreme eastern OK late Sunday afternoon or evening!  No travel issues are anticipated.   

Next week will feature improving conditions Monday and Tuesday with cool mornings and mild afternoons.  The highs could easily move into the upper 60s Monday but data supports slightly cooler air.   Both GFS and EURO data would support a frontal boundary intrusion either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.  This will bring north wind back to the state and dry air, but only for a short period.  Data also suggest a rapid return of southerly flow by Thursday into Friday as a strong upper level system moves out of the inter-mountain region.  This pattern would support increasing storm potential for sometime late next week or into the next weekend.  The pattern combined with the changing sun angle and migrating upper air flow would support the potential for a strong storm system impacting the country, including the threat of strong to severe storms in the warm sector ( southern-central plains) and winter weather across the far northern high plains and upper Midwest.  Stay tuned! 

The official high yesterday was 70 recorded at 4:18pm.

The normal daily average high is 62 and the low is 40.

Our daily records include a high of 85 from the years 1977, 1971, and 1938.  The daily record low is 13 from this date in the year 1975.  

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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and early afternoon hours. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone