Starting to get a little more optimistic regarding our chances of finally receiving some decent rainfall this weekend. As the week has progressed and better data has become available, the system for Saturday into the morning hours of Sunday looks to be a much better rain maker than was the case earlier in the week. Notice the 3 day QPF map on the right which is valid into Sunday morning. An inch or more of rain appears to be a good bet, particularly for the E/SE counties. Unfortunately, our neighbors to the west do not appear to be as fortunate.
The expected rainfall could not come at a better time either as drought continues to rear its ugly head across the state. Notice the latest drought monitor map which just came out earlier today. Not a pretty picture, particularly for our more western neighbors.
Fire danger is the main concern for today with SW winds, sunny skies, warm temperatures and humidity levels dropping into the 10-20% range. Fortunately, lighter winds and somewhat higher humidity levels will help somewhat for Friday, but the danger is still elevated. Daytime highs should be near 70 under partly sunny skies and much lighter winds. In fact, a weak boundary moving into the northern counties may even produce a northerly wind component for a time.
Saturday should see some widespread showers with some embedded storms possible. Currently, it appears the better instability and therefore the more likely area to have any severe weather would be in the far SE counties and adjacent areas of Texas. Daytime highs will be in the 60s, but it will be cooler on Sunday with daytime highs closer to 50. Lingering morning showers and brisk northerly winds area also anticipated for Sunday.
As we go into Spring break week and the calendar beginning of Spring by Thursday, temperatures will be rebounding back to the warm side of normal. Another frontal system looks to be moving across the state during the day Tuesday, but currently it looks to be a dry system with only a modest impact on temperatures. The latter part of the week also looks to be very Spring-like with little or no mention of rain at this time.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.