Friday Morning Update

Friday, March 7th 2014, 4:52 am
By: Alan Crone

Wow!  What a day yesterday!  Temps moved into the 50s with sunshine after the morning clouds!  Today will be even warmer with highs in the 60s with increasing clouds this afternoon.  But...the temps come crashing back down Saturday with rain and colder air.  Our highs Saturday may only reach the lower 40s tomorrow morning and falling into the upper 30s by the afternoon.  But after the Saturday " bump in the road"  we're in store for spring-like weather early next week before another cold front arrives Wednesday.
The next upper level system to impact our region is located across the inter-mountain region this morning.  At the surface, pressure is beginning to fall across the high plains of Texas and eastern Colorado.  This will cause a surface area of low pressure to develop to our west.  In response, our winds will increase speeds from the south in the 10 to 25 range later today with mostly to partly sunny conditions this morning and increasing clouds later today. 
Showers will begin to develop across northwestern OK around midnight and spread eastward with time Saturday morning.  A surface cold front will drop quickly southward later tonight into pre-dawn Saturday bringing gusty north winds and colder air back to the state.  Our highs tomorrow may top out around 42 by morning and then fall into the upper 30s or lower 40s for the afternoon.  We'll probably stick a 40 on the map and let it ride.
Most of the precipitation will be " post frontal" meaning behind the boundary.  This area of showers will sink southward during the afternoon but very little recovering of the temps will occur.  The temp profile does not appear to support wintry precipitation for most of the area, but some rain-snow mix is possible across northwestern OK Saturday morning and extreme northern OK for a few hours.  There may also be a chance of snow-rain mix across portions of southern Kansas.  We'll of course keep you posted if this profile comes in colder during the next few model runs,etc.  No accumulations would be expected with any rain-snow mix regions in our area.
After Saturdays wet and raw day, Sunday should bring improving conditions with morning lows in the lower 30s and highs in the 50s.  The pattern will support highs in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday across the northern third of the state before another boundary and system approach the area by Wednesday.  The data is diverging on the mid-week system ( surprise) with the EURO " wetter and colder" compared to the " dry and not as cold" GFS.  The EURO would even suggest a chance of some snow across part of southern Kansas and northern OK by next Wednesday.   We of course will go " slow and steady" regarding this portion of the forecast and only keep slight mentions of precipitation in the forecast for the middle of the week until our confidence increases in the solutions.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 53 recorded at 2:43pm.
The normal daily average high is 60 and the low is 38.
Our daily records include a high of 83 from 1925 and a low of 6 from 1920.
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Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!
Alan Crone