Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, February 26th 2014, 4:42 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're expecting cold air today with morning lows in the teens and upper 20s with afternoon highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s.  A surface ridge of high pressure will slide southward today allowing light winds and sunshine for most of the day.  Our pattern remains conducive for bringing more cold air back to the state along with some precipitation chances.   

We're tracking a small area of snow showers this morning located across southern and central Kansas.  This small narrow band is sliding southeast and should dissipate before entering the northern OK area.  But a few small snow flurries or showers will be possible along the Ok-Kansas state line for the pre-dawn hours.  A couple of brief rain showers were noted last night across far southern OK.  Most of this activity is now out of the state.  

Our next system will be arriving Friday with a chance of showers.  But the timing of the system could allow for a small window of light freezing drizzle early Friday morning across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.  South winds should return both Thursday and Friday in advance of this system with highs Thursday in the upper 40s or lower 50s.  The Friday highs may also move into the upper 50s or possibly the lower 60s by the afternoon. 

The weekend forecast will continue to go through some changes, but the overall trend of another storm system approaching the area remains in the forecast.   

The EURO suggests some light precipitation Saturday into the evening with colder air moving southward.  This would result in some very light freezing drizzle Saturday evening and freezing rain or sleet across the north by pre-dawn Sunday.  The GFS is not as cold as the EURO but would still offer some wintry potential Sunday morning.  Any precip remaining early Monday would fall in the form of light snow, but most data now keep most of the Monday period dry but cold.    

Both sets suggest much colder shallow air mass flowing southward by Saturday  into Sunday.  The data suggest very cold air could over-spread the area with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s Monday into Tuesday.    I must continue to state my confidence level remains very low for this time period.  Additional changes seem possible and likely as we grow closer to the time period of the weekend.  Wintry weather potential will remain with this system.  The forecast will be refined as confidence increases. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 45 from 1:26am.

The normal daily average high is 57 and the low is 35.

Our daily records include a high of 81 from 2009 and a low of 11 from both 1960 and 1934.  

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates throughout the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone