Friday Morning Update

Friday, February 14th 2014, 4:39 am
By: Alan Crone

Happy Valentine's Day! 

Our short term issue this morning revolves around a fast moving disturbance rotating out the central U.S. moving southeast.  This feature is strong enough to squeeze out a few showers across southern Kansas and northern OK for the next few hours before it slides into western Arkansas and out of our region.  I'm still leaning toward only some mentions for the next few hours for about a 10% chance of a shower across northern OK.  The morning clouds will also thin out by 10am as the upper level wave exits the region.  This will bring more sunshine back to the state along with northwest winds and highs in the upper 50s.  The warming trend should continue this weekend with daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s.  The computer numbers have gone down for Saturday suggesting highs back into the upper 50s, which is lower than our currently advertised readings for Saturday.  This has lowered my confidence regarding the Saturday high temp forecast, but at this point, I'm still leaning toward the 60s for tomorrow afternoon.  The Saturday morning low will begin in the upper 20s and lower 30s.   It was just a few days ago we were experiencing highs in the 20s with snow showers.  

The weekend will also feature a system nearing the area Sunday night into Monday morning.  Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward Sunday night bringing some clouds back into the eastern OK area that will linger Monday morning.  Some scattered showers will be possible Monday morning, but the better moisture content will be moving rapidly eastward into Arkansas by early Monday.  I'll continue to keep slight "on-air" mention in the forecast for a shower or thunderstorm but this chance will remain low and the pop will remain "off" the 7 day graphic.  

The temps next week will remain mild to warm with 60s and 70s likely for afternoon highs and morning lows in the 40s or lower 50s.  The pattern will change by mid-week bringing a strong looking storm system into the southern plains Thursday into the weekend.  The temperature profile will support thunderstorms across Eastern OK during this period with any wintry weather confined to the central or Midwestern plains states. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 61 recorded at 4:28pm.

The normal daily average high is 53 and the low is 31.

Our daily records include a high of 80 from 1910 and a low of -10 from 1905. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone