Thursday Morning Update


Thursday, February 13th 2014, 4:39 am
By: Alan Crone


I hope you like warmer air, because it's on the way! We've finally turned the corner and will be saying hello to some spring-like weather by the weekend. We will track at least two separate frontal intrusions across the state during the next 7 days, but the chance for measurable precipitation will remain low and mainly for areas of extreme NE OK.  

This morning we're starting in the 20s with a few clouds and light winds.  Some patchy fog is possible in a few spots.  A surface ridge of high pressure will drop southeast today allowing southwest surface winds returning across northern OK by midday.  The wind flow combined with dry air and sunshine will boost our temperatures into the upper 50s or lower 60s for Green Country with mid-60s likely across western OK. 

The computer solutions for afternoon highs have been about 7 to 10 degrees under the actual observed highs.  We're trying to play "catch-up" but have been under by several degrees for the past two days.  We're continuing to discount the machine numbers today.  

Friday morning a fast moving upper level wave will move across the middle portion of the nation dragging a surface cold front across eastern OK into western Arkansas.  This boundary may provide enough lift for some light drizzle or brief showers early Friday morning across far NE OK and NW Arkansas.  This window of opportunity will remain brief.  As I wrote yesterday, I'll mention this very low probability but keep it off the Friday time period.  

North winds Friday in the 10 to 15 mph range will keep the highs in the upper 50s but with no major air mass change expected across our region and down sloping winds, the warmer air will remain.

Saturday into Sunday stronger south winds will return and temperatures in the 5K ft level of the atmosphere are expected to warm.  The readings at the surface could move into the upper 60s in eastern OK for both days with a few locations hitting the 70 mark.  The data does support an increase of low level moisture Sunday.  This may support an increasing cloud deck for a few hours that may keep temps into the mid-60s for some locations of eastern OK, but warmer air will be the call.

 The EURO and GFS data support another boundary approaching sometime early next week.  As mentioned yesterday in the discussion, I'll continue to keep our probability very low for this period until the data converges on a solution that I can offer more confidence into our forecast.  The odds would support the moisture remaining too far east to impact our immediate areas. 

After this early week system, we may go through another few days of upper 60s and lower 70s with increasing gulf moisture across the state.  This would set the stage for thunderstorms by the following weekend.

Stay tuned!  We could go from winter to spring in a matter of two weeks. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 49 recorded at 4:07pm.

The normal daily average high is 53 and low is 31.

Our daily records include a high of 84 from 1962 and a low of -15 from 1905. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV