Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, February 12th 2014, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning!  The upper pattern is finally changing.  The end result for the state of Oklahoma including Tulsa will be warmer air.  

Temperatures this morning are cold with some lower teens across northern OK and the upper teens across the southern sections of the area.  Some patchy fog is possible across the Red River Valley for an hour or two this morning but we do not anticipate any major issues.  The full sun yesterday afternoon across northern OK melted the snow.  This morning some ice will be possible in a few locations due to the re-freezing late last night and early today.  Caution is advised for traveling early this morning, but again, major issues are not expected.  

The wave that passed our area yesterday is phasing with a strong storm system located across the deep south of the U.S. resulting in a major winter storm.  Significant snow and ice is likely this morning across portions of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.  This system will eventually move up the east coast Thursday with additional winter weather impacts.  A potentially historic ice storm is unfolding across portions of southern and central Georgia.  The Atlanta metro may experience .50 to .75 inches of ice.  Locations east of Atlanta into east-central Georgia could see near 1 inch of ice.  Locations across northern Alabama and Northern Georgia may experience 4 to 8 inches of snow.   

Our forecast today will call for mostly to partly sunny conditions and highs in the lower or mid-40s.  A fast moving disturbance will bring some clouds across the northern half of the state this morning.   

Some bufkit data supports some late night and early morning clouds for both Thursday and Friday but after the morning hours, sunshine is expected.  

Our extended forecast will continue to keep cold air Thursday morning and Friday morning, but the afternoon highs will slide into the lower or mid-50s both days.  A weak boundary will clear the state and the Tulsa metro Thursday night into Friday morning with a wind shift and a few clouds.  The GFS and EURO are both hinting at some drizzle or possibly a brief shower across extreme Eastern OK Friday morning.  At this point in the forecast cycle, I will more than likely leave this low probability out of the forecast.  

The weekend will feature some mid-level ridging across the western U.S. nudging into the southern and central plains.  The result will be southwest surface winds Saturday and highs in the lower or mid-60s.  Sunday's highs will also be in the mid-60s but some additional clouds may arrive late Sunday night into Monday morning with a sprinkle or brief shower across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas.   

At this point, the data diverges with the EURO bringing a front into the state Monday night into Tuesday with some rain and storm chances.  The GFS remains dry with south winds.  We'll wait it out for another day before placing the cards on the table.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday soared to 38 recorded at 4:31pm.

This was well above my forecasted high.   

The normal daily average high is 52 and the low is 30.

The daily record high is 86 from 1962 and low is 0 from 1905. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a great day! 

Alan Crone