Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, February 11th 2014, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're tracking an upper level disturbance that will bring some snow to the area early this morning. A winter weather advisory remains for the next several hours for portions northeastern.  Please check the top of the web page for the current advisory outline.  This system will be leaving the area early this morning with afternoon highs remaining in the mid to upper 20s north or lower 30s south.  The total accumulation near the Tulsa metro will remain near an inch or so with locally higher amounts possible to the northwest of the Tulsa metro.  The pattern will begin changing by the middle of the week with warmer air expected by Thursday into the weekend.  

This morning we continue to track an upper level disturbance moving from the northeast to the southeast.  This disturbance is producing snow across portions of our area.  The model data has been very inconsistent with this wave but we continue to forecast relatively light amounts (1 to 2 inches near Tulsa) of snow for the duration of the event.  Winter weather does bring some inherited difficulties in forecasting, but this system has been extremely difficult to "pin down".  I'll refrain from too much whining, but the models have gone from north to south and from nothing to all.  As this wave expands eastward with time, a large portion of the southern U.S. will experience some wintry weather threats.  We'll see highs today in the upper 20s or lower 30s with morning clouds and a few afternoon sun rays.  Data suggests another weak disturbance will move across the far southern sections of the state later today  with some wintry precip possible across the southwestern OK area  but this will remain away from our area of interest.   

Thursday and Friday we'll expect temps approaching the seasonal averages for daytime highs with many locations in the lower 50s both afternoons.  Friday and Saturday afternoon highs should reach the lower 60s.  

Sunday the data now supports a system nearing eastern OK that may produce some light showers and clouds.  This will force us to keep the Sunday temps lower than yesterday's forecast by a few degrees. But We'll still top out in the lower 60s.

Yesterday's high in Tulsa was 28 recorded at 3:32pm.

The daily average high is 52 and the low is 30.

Our daily records include a high of 77 from both 1951 and 1938.  The daily record low is -3 from 1981. 

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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

Thank you for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a good day. 

Alan Crone