Monday Morning Update

Monday, February 10th 2014, 4:27 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're tracking another storm system that may have an impact on the state during the next 24 hours.  Afternoon highs will remain in the 20s with a chance for some snow this evening.  Higher chances may occur tonight, the confidence for this evening system is extremely low. This morning snow is likely across southern Kansas and possibly extreme northern OK.  

This morning some light fog and freezing drizzle is possible in a few locations across far southern OK.  An upper level wave is noted across the Rockies this morning with some lift moving into the southern and central Kansas area.  Some light snow will be likely during the next few hours across Kansas and possibly along the Ok state line area into far northeastern OK.  Another inter-mountain short wave will be moving closer to the state later tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday morning.  As this wave approaches, snow will be possible across portions of the state, including northeastern and eastern OK.  The confidence for the exact swath of snow still remains extremely low at this hour. The operational models are trending more toward the "dry side" with a few of the runs keeping all snow out of the area.  The RPM and RAP models continue to suggest a swath of snow will be possible this evening into the overnight hours.  The snow amounts, if snow occurs, are expected to remain from .50 to near 2 inches along the path of the evening system. .  I must stress the lack of confidence in the forecast positioning of the snow.  We'll try to re-fine the forecast later this morning with additional information.   The model data snowfall accumulation could result in winter weather advisory criteria across portions of the area.  Additional changes to the snow accumulation forecast are likely. 

After the short wave exits the area Tuesday morning, most data support a slight chance for a few flurries Wednesday before the pattern shifts by the end of the week bringing warmer air back to the state.  We should see afternoon highs approaching the upper 40s Wednesday and the lower to mid-50s Thursday into Friday.  The weekend should see highs moving into the 60s.  We do have another system nearing the state by the second half of next weekend, but the temperature profile would support liquid precip and not wintry weather impacts. And at this point, I'm inclined to keep the slight pop off the 7 day planner.  

Temps both today and tomorrow will remain the upper 20s or the lower 30s.  Tuesday morning lows will start in the middle to upper teens. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 33 recorded at 4:08pm.

The daily average high is 52 and the low is 30.

Our daily records include a high of 81 from 1922 and a low of -12 from 2011.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thank you for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan crone