Tuesday Morning Update

I'm tracking a weak upper level disturbance this morning moving across the northwest flow into the state.  This is producing some light snow across portions of the state with central OK in the best position for a dusting.   A few areas, including the Tulsa metro, could experience some light snow for a few hours.  If you do experience the flurry activity, no significant accumulation is expected.  Some locations across central OK will pick up an inch of snow in a few locations.   The temps should move into the upper 20s this afternoon for the daytime highs.  The winds will be relatively light with northeast winds in the 5 to 10 mph range.   The cold air will modify soon but another front will be lurking just north of the state line late this week into the weekend. 

The upper air pattern is expected to change soon.  This change will eventually allow the southern stream to bring a few disturbances near the state, but the cold air associated with the eastern trough will still be near the region.  Extended data continues to oscillate with run to run regarding the exact outcome, but I do have some confidence in the mid-range data.  This will allow for south winds to develop Wednesday and Thursday with a warming trend expected for the state.  We'll expect Wednesday highs in the lower or mid-40s and some lower to mid-50s Thursday and Friday.  After today, we'll start to see more sunshine Wednesday and Thursday. 

Friday a system will be nearing the state.  There may be some very light precipitation Friday morning across far eastern OK or western Ark but the chance will remain low.  Some additional precip is likely along the extreme OK and Arkansas state line area late Friday night into Saturday morning.

A cold front will pass the state Saturday morning allowing north winds to move back into most of the state, but the temps will remain the upper 30s or lower 40s.   

Sunday into early next week will remain very unsettled in the data.  Yesterday the EURO brought a strong system into the state Sunday night into Monday.  Today the data is later with Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  We can't be too specific due to the inconsistency in the run to run data, but this system has the potential to be a big weather maker for the state.  

The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 37 recorded at 12:04am.

The normal daily average high is 49 and the low is 28. 

Our daily records include a high of 82 from 1909 and a low of 3 from 1948. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hours.  

Thanks for the reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV