Monday Morning Update

Good morning.  Welcome back to winter. 

A strong cold front rolled across the state yesterday morning bringing another arctic air mass to the region.  The cold air will remain today with highs in the mid or upper 30s but sunshine and relatively light winds will allow for a pleasant but winter-like afternoon across northeastern OK and the surrounding areas.  We'll deal with 2 more systems over the next 7 days.  The first will arrive Wednesday and the 2nd will arrive Saturday or Sunday.  I think the 2nd system may have the potential for some wintry weather impacts across the eastern third or the southern third of the state, but the confidence will remain low regarding this portion of the forecast for another few days.   

The sky has cleared in many locations this morning allowing temps to drop into the teens.  A weak upper level wave is brushing far southeastern OK and northeast TX for the next three to five hours and there may be just enough moisture for some wintry precip in these areas.  The actual chance remains near or even below 20%.  This will not have any major impacts across NE OK.  

The afternoon will feature mainly sunny sky and light winds with highs in the 30s.  

As the next upper level wave develops and grows near our area Tuesday, our pressure will begin to fall later tonight and early Tuesday morning.  In response, the southerly winds will increase speeds from 10 to 25 mph tomorrow afternoon and we'll experience a miniature warm up with highs nearing the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.  The increase southerly wind speeds and high clouds will off-set the temp rise and it will feel rather cool by Tuesday afternoon, but obviously warmer than what we'll experience later today. 

Wednesday afternoon or late evening another strong cold front will arrive from the north bringing more cold air to the state.  Thankfully the majority of this cold snap will remain anchored to the northeast of the state where extremely bitter cold temps will remain for the entire week.  Our highs will drop back into the 30s Thursday and into the lower 40s Friday. 

The EURO is the only model bringing some precip across eastern OK with this Wednesday evening wave, and at this point, I'm inclined to either leave the pop out or only insert a 10% pop.   

This weekend features another approaching system.  Again we have some differences in model data but most available guidance indicates a strong system nearing the southern plains Saturday evening into Sunday morning.  Some rain shower activity will be likely across southern or far eastern OK Saturday evening with colder air allowing for some wintry weather possibly Sunday morning across the eastern third of the state.  More than likely, most available moisture will be swept out of the area before the colder air arrives Sunday morning.  That's why we're not too concerned at this point in the forecast cycle for a big impact of wintry weather this weekend.  But these systems will no doubt change several times in the model data before the truth begins to bubble to the surface.  And consequently, our confidence and forecast for this late portion of the extended forecast will no doubt undergo some changes between now and the middle of next week.  We'll be refining the numbers and the probabilities will not make any wild swings from our current projections.   Slow and steady usually wins, even in the forecasting business. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 45 recorded at 1:25am.  Most of the day was spent in the upper 20s.

The daily average high is 47 and the low is 28.

Our daily records include a high of 77 from 1951 and a low of 2 from 1983. 

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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV