Friday Morning Update

Friday, November 22nd 2013, 3:29 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're tracking some frigid air across the state and some very light drizzle and pockets of mist this morning.  Our friends from the National Weather Service will continue a Winter Weather Advisory for a large portion of the western, central, and south-central Ok area through tonight.  This advisory currently does not include the Tulsa metro and locations southeast.  Please check the "red banner" at the top of this page for up to date advisory information.   Only very light icing is expected west and north of the Tulsa metro.  Temps will drop slightly below freezing near the Tulsa metro this morning.  Some mist or drizzle may freeze on a few elevated surfaces.  A number of locations will not receive measurable precipitation this morning.  

The arctic boundary is well southeast of the state this morning.  Much colder air is now covering the entire state and may reside here through early next week.  Strong north winds combined with temps near the lower 30s will create wind chill values in the teens this morning and in the lower and mid-20s this afternoon.

Warm and moist air continues to ride up and over the shallow dome of cold air at the surface.  This process creates drizzle or pockets of light mist that will continue for the next few hours before ending by midday to afternoon.  A few models continue to offer some additional precipitation moving into the eastern OK area later this evening.  We continue to think this is precipitation output is overly aggressive but there will remain a chance for some light freezing rain later tonight.  We'll be closely monitoring radar and observational data for any signs of this possible moisture which would result some spotty icing across part of the state later tonight.  Again, at this point, the winter weather advisory remains for areas northwest of Tulsa.   

Saturday will be cold and windy with morning lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs in the upper 30s near 40.  North winds at 10 to 22 mph will be experienced across the eastern third of the state.   

Sunday into early next week offers another big forecasting challenge.  A cut off low currently located across the west coast near California will begin moving eastward with time.  The shallow cold air mass will remain over the state Sunday into early next week as this feature approaches the region.  This pattern combined with cold air in place is conducive to snowfall across portions of the state but the model data continues to offer widely different solutions.  The NAM produces significant snowfall across part of west-central and south-central OK, while the GFS is more southward with precipitation. 

The main upper level system may move directly over the state Monday night into Tuesday according to the GFS and could produce some precipitation but the exact track and moisture availability remain elusive at this hour.  The EURO takes the low southward across north TX and weakens the feature as it opens.  The forecast will call for some wintry precip potential for Sunday night into Monday for eastern OK and then again Tuesday morning.  Sunday precip chances will begin by morning to midday across the western third of the state.  Temperatures will remain cold during this time period. 

After the upper level system clears the state Tuesday night we'll expect improving conditions Wednesday into Thursday but cool air will remain.  Thanksgiving Day appears Sunny and cool with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.  The day after will support highs in the near 50.  We may have another system by next weekend rolling across the southern plains.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 1:38pm.

The normal daily average high is 58 and the low is 37.

Our daily records include a high of 79 from 2010, 1966, and 1955.  The daily record low is 16 from 1929.   

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Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone