Monday Morning Update

Monday, November 18th 2013, 4:42 am
By: Alan Crone

The first part of the forecast will be relatively mild with highs today slightly above normal.  The second half of the extended for later this week will result in another brush with much colder air and some precipitation potential.   

The cold front swept across the state yesterday but the air mass that followed this boundary is of pacific origin.  The low level moisture that resulted in some Saturday showers across the state was swept eastward into the Missouri Valley and the Midwest.  Powerful winds aloft combined with an approaching storm system resulted in a significant severe weather event yesterday across some of these areas.  Numerous tornadoes were reported along with some fatalities and injuries through the Midwest.  The preliminary reports indicate at least one EF4 event.  

Our weather across the state will be very mild today with abundant sunshine and highs in the lower 60s.  A surface ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature allowing light winds and dry conditions across the entire state.  

Our surface winds will return from the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface ridge slide east and a new upper level trough approaches from the west.  This will cause an increase in wind speeds Wednesday from the south and a few spotty showers or t-showers may be possible cross Northern OK and southern Kansas Wednesday morning to midday.  I'll keep the coverage on the low side, mainly around the 20% range. Some thunder will be possible but severe weather is not expected.  

Thursday a strong Canadian-arctic air mass will rapidly move southward entering the state sometime during the day with falling temperatures from the 50s with a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.  The cold air should move rapidly southward and lasting through the weekend.  This means Friday morning temps will start in the mid-30s and finish in the upper 30s or lower 40s. The weekend numbers also look quite chilly with highs only in the upper 30s or lower 40s. A disturbance located across the southwestern U.S. could bring some moisture up and over the shallow dome of cold air Friday but this portion of the forecast remains in the low confidence category. There may be a small window for some wintry precipitation Friday night into early Saturday, but I think most of the moisture will be south of the state before the temps drop closer to freezing.     I'll keep a decent chance of precip for these periods of Thursday into Friday, but I'll only carry a 10% mention at this point for Saturday.  The weekend temps would remain in the 30s for lows and upper 30s or lower 40s for highs.  We'll encourage you to check the weekend forecast frequently for updates as changes are going to be likely. 

We'll have another chance of some precipitation either Sunday night late or early next week as a southwestern U.S. upper level lifts across the southern plains.  This portion of the forecast remains mainly outside of the 7 day domain. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 74 recorded at 2:34 pm.

The normal daily average is 60 and the low is 39.

Our daily records include a high of 82 recorded in 1930 and a low of 19 on this date in 1951. 

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.   

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone