Friday Morning Update

Friday, October 25th 2013, 4:38 am
By: Alan Crone

Freeze and frost advisories and warnings are currently posted for portions of northeastern OK and southern Kansas for the next few hours.  

Dry air, light winds, and clear sky are allowing temps to drop across northeastern OK into the lower 30s along the highway 412 corridor.  The Tulsa metro will be close to the freezing mark this morning.  Later this afternoon the highs will move to near 60 or so with a return of east to southeast winds around 10 mph.  We'll have sun for most of the day with a few high clouds by later this afternoon and evening. Friday night football will be played in the 50s under the clouds.

We're tracking two systems, the first one approaching tomorrow, but the major one advancing near the state by the middle of next week.   

The upper level wave moving across the desert southwest will provide lift across part of the state tomorrow, but the limited moisture will keep amounts on the low side.  The higher probabilities will reside south of Tulsa, but the Tulsa metro will have a chance for Saturday showers.  Southern and central Ok will have a much higher probability for the rain with a few rumbles of thunder.   

Sunday appears nice with temps moving into the upper 60s or lower 70s before the next major system approaches for the middle part of the week.  This major system continues to be problematic in the data regarding the exact outcome, but the confidence is high regarding a precipitation event next week.  

 This main upper level system is currently located across part of the Pacific and will not be moving inland for another 12 hours or so.  This means the system will more than likely be incorrectly sampled in the upper air data until Saturday evening.  Consequently wild and crazy model solutions will be likely until the system is sampled correctly in the data. 

EURO has basically been slower and the GFS has been colder and much faster.  I'll refrain from posting all kinds of different scenarios regarding what may or may not happen, but we'll keep the general trend of increasing thunderstorm chances Monday, with higher chances Tuesday into Wednesday.  IF the EURO solution is correct, storms will be extending into Thursday morning.  As stated here yesterday, you're going to hear and read all kinds of scenarios on social media regarding this system.  We'll keep you posted as we draw closer to a more confident forecast.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 58 recorded at 2:41pm.

The normal daily average high is 70 and the low is 48.

Precipitation for the year remains at 28.29 inches

which is considered  -6.54 compared to the normal precip to year of 34.80 inches.  

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone