Monday Morning Update

Monday, October 14th 2013, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

The pattern will remain unsettled for the next 36 to 48 hours bringing a round of rain and thunderstorm activity across the state.  High temperatures today may be reached in the morning hours (upper 60s or lower 70s) and then readings will stay in the lower or mid 60s this afternoon with periods of rain and thunderstorms.  Severe weather is not anticipated in our immediate area across Eastern OK.  Our biggest issue may be pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall resulting in some minor local flooding issues. 

The upper level system of note is currently developing to our west.  The cold front that brought late Friday night and early Saturday morning storms to part of eastern OK is now south of the area.  This front is already moving northward as a warm front and will help to bring additional low level moisture back to the region.  This process started yesterday and will continue today.

One of our biggest challenges this morning is trying to pinpoint the "timing" of the system.  Observational and model data aren't exactly together at this hour. And some of the normal tools used for timing purposes are not available to me this morning.  I'll more than likely use a 10am to noon start time for our immediate area.  This is subject to larger than normal error.

The main long wave to our west will eventually shove another surface cold front across the central U.S. and into northern OK Tuesday morning before the front rapidly accelerates southeast Tuesday mid-morning.  Dry and stable air will arrive behind the boundary effectively pushing the moisture southward out of our area. 

Data does support a fast moving and weak upper level wave traversing the state late Wednesday night into Thursday morning that should produce some light showers along and south of I-40.  We'll include a chance for some light precipitation for this time period but higher chances will remain south of the Tulsa area.  

The latter portion of the extended forecast is highly uncertain.  The EURO data brings another strong looking system into the region Friday into Saturday with rain and storm chances followed by a stout cool down.  EURO data suggests a strong long wave trough developing and moving over the region during this period.  GFS has a completely different upper level set up and keeps the area dry and mild.  We'll give a nod to the EURO at this point, but remain very conservative with precip and temps for the end of the week.  Obviously this time period could go through major changes during the next few days regarding our forecast.

Temperatures behind the Tuesday boundary will be cool with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s for the short term between now and Thursday.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 3:47pm.
The normal daily average high is 74 and the low is 51.

Precip for the year stands at 33.36 inches which is -6.23" below normal for the year to date of 33.36.

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I'll be discussing the regional and state-wide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Alan Crone