Thursday Morning Update

The main focus of the forecast centers on a series of systems approaching the area for the weekend into early next week.  Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase at certain times this weekend and will continue through the early portion of next week.  A strong front will finally clear the area Tuesday bringing dry air and cool afternoon highs in the 60s.  We're expecting highs around 80 for the rest of this week.  

The main upper level trough is positioned across the Pacific Northwest into the intermountain region this morning.  As this trough moves east and northeast over the next 36 hours, surface pressures will fall from the Rockies eastward into the southern plains, including the state of Oklahoma.  As this occurs, gusty southeast winds will develop state-wide in the range of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts across the western part of the state.  Low level moisture in the form of higher dew point temperatures will move northward across central and east Texas into our region by Friday and Saturday setting the stage for some shower and thunderstorm activity.  

The main energy aloft will slide northeast Friday night into Saturday across the central plains into the Midwest while a surface cold front will move into northwestern and northern OK.  A few showers or storms will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern half of the state into southern Kansas.  Some data supports a small cluster of storms located near the I-35 corridor by Friday evening into Saturday morning that would spread eastward pre-dawn.  Additional scattered showers and storms would be possible Saturday across portions of central and eastern OK where higher instabilities and convective energy will reside by afternoon.  A few of these storms could be strong to severe but the severe threat remains low.  

This boundary is expected to stall as the upper air wind becomes almost parallel with the surface boundary but another short wave moving around the base of the trough will induce another surface area of low pressure in Southern Colorado by Sunday.  This will cause the cold front to move northward into southern Kansas as a warm front by Sunday evening into Monday morning increasing the rain and storm chances during the Sunday evening and Monday morning period across portions of the state.  Model data supports some 1 to 2 inch rainfall possibilities but not all locations will receive the precipitation.  

The front will then move southward Monday night into Tuesday morning as yet another upper level trough slides east and northeast.  This time the front will finally clear the state with high pressure bringing the dry and cool air mass to the region.  After Tuesday morning, we may be in store for some excellent fall weather for the remainder of the week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 78 recorded at 3:51pm.

The normal average high is 75 and the low is 52.

Our daily records for Tulsa include a high of 95 from 1963 and 1931.  The record low is 30 from both 1925 and 1906. 

Precipitation for the year (Tulsa) remains at 29.96 inches which is -5.90 below the normal to date 32.86". 

In summary:  The highest chances will be early Saturday morning and then late Sunday night into Monday.  Monday night into Tuesday will also see a "ramp up" of precipitation before the front clears the area. 

Friday night football:

Most games across the state will be in fine shape, but a few locations across northwestern or north central OK may have a shower or storm to dodge.   

Saturday College games:

A number of the regional universities will play in the state this weekend and will have a chance for thunderstorms during their games.  A reminder:  if you hear thunder, lightning has already occurred and you should seek shelter until the threat has passed.  As a general rule, most athletic competitions will (should) suspend play and not resume play until 30 minutes after the last observed lightning strike.  

OSU does not play this weekend.  

OU vs. TX;

There will be a chance for a few showers and storms across the north TX area this Saturday morning through afternoon, including the Cotton Bowl.  Game time temps will be in the lower 80s by mid-game with clouds and south breezes around 10 mph.  The actual chance for storms at the Cotton Bowl remains near 30 to 40%.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. If you are new to the discussion, I post every weekday morning between 330am and 345am.   

Thanks for stopping by and have a super great day! 

Alan crone

KOTV