Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, October 8th 2013, 4:28 am
By: Alan Crone

Monday was absolutely wonderful regarding our weather.  Today will be very nice with highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoons highs.  South winds will return this afternoon around 10 to 15 mph and wind speeds will increase for the remainder of the week as a new storm system draws closer to the southern plains.  

Most data support a stout upper level system developing out of the Pacific Northwest during the next 24 hours.  Surface pressures will begin to fall across the Lee of the Rockies and into the southern plains as a response to this upper trough drawing closer to the region.  Gusty southeast winds will commence for the rest of the week after today allowing low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to stream northward.  Consequently, morning lows will move up a few degrees with many locations in the upper 50s to lower 60s by the end of the week.  Daytime highs after today will slide into the lower 80s and remain there for the remainder of the week. Sunshine will remain abundant both today and tomorrow before partly cloudy conditions prevail Friday.  

We think a few showers or storms may be possible Friday as the upper level trough pivots across the Rockies and lifts northeast into the central high plains states but this chance will remain very low.  This very strong system will produce some severe weather along the Front Range of the Rockies and points northeast into the central plains and possibly the upper Midwest Friday into the weekend.  

A surface cold front is expected to slide southward into the state sometime this weekend, probably Saturday afternoon or evening, bringing a chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region.  A second and weaker short wave aloft should also move near the state during this time period.  This could aid in the development of a few severe storms Saturday afternoon or evening, but the probability for severe weather appears low at this point.  

The EURO and GFS have some differences in the exact outcome of the system, but we're going to keep a decent chance of showers and storms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday.  The air mass behind the cold front will not be exceptionally different from the one ahead of it and temperatures will only cool a few degrees for the weekend.   

Extended data also supports another system nearing the area sometime early next week that may develop into another rain maker for the southern plains.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 75 recorded at 3:51pm.

The normal daily average high is 75 and the low is53.   Our daily records include a high of 97 from 1979 and a low of 30 from 2000. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

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Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone



Alan Crone