Tuesday Morning Update

Good morning.  We're looking at another spectacular fall day across northern Oklahoma.  Temperatures this morning are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but still very pleasant readings are noted across northeastern Oklahoma.  Many areas of northeastern Oklahoma will experience highs today from 79 to 83 degrees along with full sunshine.  Northwest winds will be common at 15 to 20 MPH later today.  A weak cold front is moving across northeastern Oklahoma this morning but no "real" precipitation is expected. I suppose there could be sprinkle or two but most of this would be too far east to mention.  

 A stout but small upper level system is located in Nebraska and Iowa this morning and is rapidly lifting out to the northeast. We did have a few very small showers last night around 8pm to 9pm as some energy from the low brushed northern OK.  This system has brought a fast-moving cold front across the state over night and early this morning.    The air mass behind the cold front is of Pacific origin.  Slightly dryer air will move in across north western and northern Oklahoma this evening, but southeast winds will return Wednesday and continue through the end of the week helping to bring moisture back to the region.  The south wind will return in response to another upper level storm system approaching the area.  As the pressure falls across the eastern Colorado, our surface winds will increase speed from the south and southeast Thursday and Friday.  Low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will attempt a return across East in Texas and Eastern Oklahoma Friday and Saturday.  A cold front will approach the region Saturday and Saturday night bringing a good likelihood of rain and thunderstorm activity to most of the state.  The timing of this system remains generally consistent, with the latest runs slowly the frontal passage slightly but I am still not entirely confident on the exact timing of the frontal boundary.  I think most of the rain and thunderstorm activity should be developing by Saturday afternoon and early evening and exiting the region early Sunday morning.  Yesterday's data supported Saturday morning and midday.   

 The upper level system remains very strong in the data.  If the system slows down even more, a severe weather threat could begin to materialize across the southern and central plains.  As posted here yesterday, I'll refrain from any severe weather mentions on air this morning at this point in the forecast cycle.   

 The temperatures behind the cold front will drop into the mid 70's Sunday afternoon.  Some data yesterday supported a rapid South wind return Sunday night and Monday with another system nearby while other data keeps us dry early next week.  Early fall is usually an active weather time of the year as the Sun angle continues to change and the polar jet begins migrating south.  At this point, we'll keep it dry Monday into the middle part of next week.  The GFS indicates a very strong cold front would be nearby Oct 4-5^th.  We can only hope! 

 The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 81 recorded at 4:03pm.    The normal daily average high is 80 and the low is 58.  

 Daily records include a high of 99 from 1931 and a low of 37 from 1989.  

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

 I'll be discussing the statewide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates throughout the day.   

 Thank you for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.  If you're new to the blog, I usually post this discussion between 330 and 430am weekday mornings.   

 Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV