Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, September 19th 2013, 4:39 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  Temperatures today will feel more like summer then late fall with daytime highs in the lower or even mid 90s.  Gusty south to southwest winds at 10 to 20 miles per hour will be common.  A strong cold front will approach northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas later this evening and bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorm activity to our region later tonight into Friday.  

 A strong upper level system is currently speeding through Montana with a speed max moving across the intermountain west.  A surface cold front will move into Northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon and into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas later this evening.  The front will more than likely not cross the Tulsa area until early Friday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous behind the cold front, but pre-frontal thunderstorms are a possibility late this afternoon into early Friday morning.  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.   Water values are quite high and this means storms should be efficient rainmakers.  Thunderstorm activity will end from northwest to southeast during the Friday midday to early afternoon time.  As it stands now, most of northern Oklahoma will be precipitation free by Friday afternoon but some locations south of i-40 may still experience something to storm activity Friday evening.  Some Friday night football games across the far southeastern third of the state could be impacted by a few thunderstorms.   

 The temperatures behind the departing cold front will be in the upper 70's or near 80 Friday afternoon along with north winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour.  

 Dry air at the surface, along with a surface Ridge of high pressure, will lead to beautiful weekend weather conditions.  Temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning may fall into the lower or mid 50's across most of northern Oklahoma.  Afternoon high temperatures Saturday May top out around 81 and Sunday from 82 to 84.  Mostly sunny conditions will be expected both days.    The 00NAM run is slightly warmer for Saturday morning and midday but I'll make no changes to our ongoing forecast for this cycle.  

 A fast-moving upper level system will move across the northern high plains Sunday night into Monday morning.  The tail end of this mid to upper level trough will brush northern Oklahoma late Sunday night into early Monday morning.  Shower or thunderstorm activity associated with this system should remain North west or north of our area.  Another strong upper level system will approach our area by the end of next week and appears to be strong enough to generate more rain and storm chances as it approaches the region but this system is now trending slightly more northward compared to previous runs.  Temperatures for next week may also be slightly above the seasonal average for daytime highs. 

 We continue to monitor a possible tropical system developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning.  Hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft will more than likely fly missions into the area later today in order to observe this possible tropical system.  Various computer model data indicates this system should blossom into a tropical storm. 

 The high in Tulsa yesterday was 94 recorded at 3:30pm.

 The normal daily average high is 82 and the low is 61.   Records for today include a high of100 from 1954 and 1910.  The record low is 45 from 1991 and 1938.  

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

 I'll be discussing the statewide regional forecast on numerous radio Oklahoma news network affiliates.   

 Thank you for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.     

 Have a super great day!

Alan Crone