Monday Morning Update

First up:  I've been out of pocket for the last week.  Thanks to Mike Grogan for handling the morning weather shifts.  It's not easy for those not accustomed to getting up at 1am to 2am in the morning to work through the early afternoon.  I'll discover this first hand today as I slide back into the saddle and the work schedule.

Second:  Heavy rain threat will result in some flash flood potential for the next two days. 

Third:  The cool weather is likely to continue for the week.

A weak boundary is located near or slightly north of the state line this morning and will slowly sag southward during the next 24 to 36 hours.  An upper level disturbance will be approaching the central plains soon and storms are forming this morning to our north.  The upper air flow from the northwest to southeast will bring this complex of thunderstorm activity into northern OK and southern Kansas later this morning through midday.  There will be some moderate to heavy rainfall with scattered storms this morning.  Due to recent heavy rainfall last week, the flash flood potential will be in the forecast for most of northern OK and southern Kansas for the short term.  The severe weather threat is low this morning through midday, but later today additional storms may develop across northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas.  These storms could be severe with large hail and wind the main issue.  This expected complex will move southeast Monday evening into Tuesday morning and could be severe with some wind and hail issues across part of northern OK and southern Kansas.  But our main threat may eventually be the heavy rainfall potential due to saturated soils from earlier rains last week.

Tuesday the front will be sliding southward near the I-40 corridor before moving into north Texas by Wednesday morning.  Another round of showers and storms will be likely Tuesday morning across northern OK somewhere near or slightly north of the boundary.  This will probably be in a zone north of  I-40 and near the I-44 corridor.  Wednesday morning the heavy rain threat will slide southward into north TX but also weaken.  I must stress the models display some run to run differences regarding Wednesday morning.  We'll keep a slight chance for Wednesday during the day, but we may need to increase these Wednesday morning probabilities for a few hours.

Temps will remain in the mid to upper 80s today but will drop into the lower 80s Tuesday (maybe even the upper 70s) and lower 80s Wednesday with the clouds and rain across part of the region.  Wednesday morning as the boundary pushes southward drier air will arrive across southern Kansas and Northern OK allowing for morning lows in the lower 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. Some locations Friday and Saturday morning could drop into the upper 50s across extreme northern OK and northwestern Arkansas.

The weekend appears nice at this point with lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 80s.  The EURO data does hold a slight chance for some scattered showers or storms Friday but the favored location may reside west of our immediate area.  So at this point, we'll keep it only a very slight mention in the forecast.  Obviously we'll be watching data closely and make adjustments when or if needed.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 5:32pm.
The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 72.

Our daily records include a high of 113 from 1936 and a low of 52 from 1967.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and early afternoon hours.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone
KOTV