Tuesday Morning Update

After morning storms across northern and eastern OK, we'll have a slight chance of afternoon storms with highs in the lower 90s. A few storm chances will remain in the extended forecast but mainly for extreme northern OK.

(2:44am) Once again we're tracking thunderstorm activity early this morning across northern OK. Last night these thunderstorms were severe across northwestern OK and southern Kansas but the threat has now transitioned mainly to a flash flood (heavy rainfall) event for northeastern OK.  A flash flood watch is currently posted for areas northwest of Tulsa until 1pm but will probably be canceled sometime this morning.  A flash flood watch means conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall in and close to the watch area that may lead to localized flooding.  Low water crossings and areas prone to flooding could have issues this morning in some areas.  Water values are very high meaning that showers and storms will be extremely efficient rainfall producers creating 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rainfall rates in some storms.  A few isolated severe storms may still be possible for the next hour or two across south-central or southwestern OK, but this should be the exception and not the rule. You'll find up to date watch and warning information on the "red line" listed at the top of the main weather page.  The rain should diminish during the early morning hours.

Broad scale subsidence should overspread the area behind the departing system this morning.  This should greatly limit the precip potential until later this afternoon, but I will keep a slight chance of additional showers or storms for  this afternoon in the form of a 20% pop on the map. Some of the RAP runs indicate a line of showers or storms may form this afternoon from southwestern OK to near the northeastern part of the state. 

The operational models indicate the surface front that moved northward in Kansas yesterday afternoon will move southward again into northern Oklahoma tonight into Wednesday.  This will bring northeast winds back to the region late tonight and Wednesday before the flow backs out of the east/southeast Thursday.  There remain some signals in the data for another storm complex to brush northern OK and southern Kansas Thursday night into Friday morning.  We'll keep only a slight chance in the forecast for this update cycle.  Another boundary could enter the state this weekend but most data now keeps this boundary across portions of Kansas.   We'll keep a chance of early morning storms in the forecast for both Saturday morning and Sunday morning for the northeastern third of the region.  These probabilities will remain in the 20% range for now. 

Temperatures today will move back into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most locations across northern OK along with south winds around 10 to 20 mph.  Temp heat index values may be increasing during the afternoon with readings in the mid to upper 90s.  Morning lows will begin near the 72 to 74 range for the short term before moving into the mid or upper 70s Thursday and Friday morning. Our daytime temperatures will drop back into the lower 90s Wednesday but move into the mid or upper 90s for the end of the week with our current forecast package.  We may be changing a few of these numbers depending upon the confidence level for additional storms Thursday night into Friday.

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 2:25pm.
The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 73.

Our daily records include a high of 110 from 1986 and a low of 55 from 1971.

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I'll be discussing the state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV