Tuesday Morning Update

We're in the running once again for another storm complex or two for the next few days across southern Kansas and northeastern OK.  Temperatures today will move back into the mid and upper 90s along with temperature heat index values from 100 to 110 in some but not all locations.  The National Weather Service will issue heat advisories for a large portion of northern OK today.  A few isolated storms will remain possible today with daytime heating, some outflows nearby, and plenty of low level moisture.  Additional storms are likely to approach southern Kansas this evening and may move into northern OK early tomorrow morning.  A few may be severe.  

The upper air flow remains from the northwest to southeast.  This pattern is prevalent in early June and sometimes early July, but usually not so much in mid to late July.  Usually a mid-level ridge of high pressure is parked over the area keeping rain chances confined to an afternoon pop up storm and the temps in the hot category.  The ridge is located to our northwest and this has allowed a northwest flow aloft to brush the central plains.  This is a favorable flow for bringing storm systems into the state.   

The different and various computer models have some differing solutions but all agree of the overall trend of keeping a chance of storms in the forecast, mainly late night and early morning chances.  The higher chances will more than likely occur late tonight into Wednesday morning, and then sometime Friday.  The Friday system could begin pre-dawn Friday with another complex developing along the state line Friday night into Saturday morning.  At this point, we have reverted back to keeping the pops centered up for the Friday time period.  Just keep in mind the timing of these probabilities could shift as the days draw near.  

There will be a threat of some severe weather with this upper air flow.  The main threat will be damaging winds (downbursts) and some hail with the storms that reach severe levels.   

There is a surface boundary that will be nearing southern Kansas by the end of the forecast period that may actually move across northern OK Friday night into Saturday.  The data suggests the temps behind this front would give us daytime highs in the 80s for  Saturday and possibly Sunday.  There's also a decent chance that Fridays high would also be in the 80s due to the impact of clouds and rain near or over your area.  Before this front passes our area, occasional outflow boundaries may bring local wind shifts and some temporary relief from the heat.  But the temps will be expected to remain in the very warm to hot category for through the middle of the week.  Morning lows will be in the mid and upper 70s with a stout low level moisture supply keeping humidity values very high during overnight and morning hours.  Morning lows will drop into the upper 60s this weekend.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 94 from 11:58pm.  Jenks Riverside Airport measured a high of 96.

The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 73.

Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1936 and a low of 58 from 1970. 

Precipitation from Tulsa International registered 0.06 inches.

This brings the month to date total to 2.26 inches.

The year to date total is up to 17.83.

This still leads to a deficit of  -5.89 compared to the normal precipitation to date of 23.72 inches.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV