Friday Morning Update

Welcome back to spring!  I'll keep the discussion somewhat short this morning.  After our three day rainy and cold weather event, we're now moving rapidly back into a short term spring-like weather pattern with sunshine and highs in the 70s.  This pattern will also bring a chance of severe storms to the state and region by early next week.  

This morning we may have some patchy fog developing across part of the region due to residual low level moisture, clear sky, and light wind.  Any fog will quickly erode by the 9am hour and sunshine will be abundant for the day with highs in the lower 70s.  South winds in the 10 to 15 mph range will be common today and stronger this weekend as our next upper level system approaches the region.  

Temps this weekend will remain mild with morning lows in the 50s and Saturday afternoon highs in the mid-70s.  Saturday appears fine, but Sunday into early next week will become active.   

Our first issue will resolve around Saturday night and Sunday morning.  A weak boundary will be near northern OK along with a broad surface low pressure area across western OK.  There will be a slight chance for a few storms late Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday morning near or slightly north of the boundary.  Surface instability will be low, but the increase of moisture combined with a low level jet could create a severe storm or two during this time period.  We'll keep a 30 pop for this time period.  

Sunday afternoon the boundary is expected to move northward as a quasi-warm front and the threat for severe storms will be confined to southern Kansas or possibly western OK closer to a dry line type feature that should develop.  

Monday and Tuesday as the main upper level system draws closer to the region, strong to severe storms will be possible from Kansas into part of Ok and Texas.  This unsettled pattern could remain through Wednesday before the cold front finally clears the state and moves eastward across the southeastern U.S.  The severe weather threat Monday into early next week could become significant but the run to run inconsistency in model data precludes me from discussing too many specifics at this hour.  I would encourage you to remain aware of the weather early next week including the potential for all modes of severe weather.  

The pattern may also bring another surge of cool air back to the area by either Wednesday or Thursday , but this would not last very long.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 5:07pm.

The normal daily average high is 69 and the low is 46.

The daily records include a high of 88 on this date from 2000 and a low of 22 recorded in 1920.

You'll hear my forecast this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News.

I'll also be discussing statewide and regional weather on numerous affiliates of the Radio Oklahoma News Network this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

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Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV