Thursday Morning Update

The rainy and cold weather pattern is about to exit the region this morning and spring-like weather will quickly return tomorrow and this weekend.  Another strong upper level system will be nearing the area by early next week and a few rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible.   

This morning we continue to see some showers remaining across eastern OK and northeast Texas but dry air is rapidly being ingested into the mid-level system and precip will quickly end.  Early this morning, there is a slight chance of some sleet or snow flurries in the mix with the early morning temp profile in the upper 30s at the surface and slightly colder aloft.  I will make a few ON AIR mentions of this slight scenario for the next hour or so, but this is not a big deal.  The clouds should stick around for most of the day, but later this afternoon some clearing will move into the I-35 corridor before approaching eastern OK by the 4 to 5 pm hour.  A late 9th inning rally of some sun is possible, but not likely for extreme eastern OK.  North winds will remain around 10 to 15 mph for most of the day.   

Tomorrow the spring temps rapidly return after the cold morning readings in the 30s, we'll move into the upper 60s and lower 70s with plenty of sunshine and light southeast winds.  Friday will more than likely be the best weather day of the week.  The only issue will be the soggy ground cover.  

The weekend will feature the approach of the next upper level system from the west.  Our surface winds will increase speeds out of the south and southeast at 15 to 24 mph.  Low level moisture will rapidly be drawn northward and meet a weak west to east boundary Sunday morning across southern Kansas.  A surface low pressure area across northwestern OK and this weak boundary will be the focus for a few isolated storms Sunday afternoon or evening, but the higher chances will remain to our north across southern Kansas or extreme northeastern OK.  

As the main upper level system draws near the region in the southwest flow aloft, the surface pressure will become stronger and the winds aloft will gain speed while changing direction with height.  Sometime around Monday through Wednesday, the main system will grow closer to the area and our thunderstorm chances will increase.  The severe weather threat with this system may be significant, but the timing of the ejection is still in question.   

After the system passes, we may see a few days of temps below the seasonal average once again for Thursday and Friday.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 46 recorded at 2:04pm.

The normal daily average high is 69 and the low is 46.

Records include a high of 90 from 1943 and a low of 27 from both 1972 and 1920.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa. 

You'll also hear my regional and state wide forecast on the Radio Oklahoma News Network.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV