Showers/Storms Into Tonight, Warm for Easter Sunday.

Notice the 24 hour rainfall map on the right as of early this morning, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. As is often the case with thunderstorms in the springtime, there will be some heavy rainfall totals that are very localized and that was the case last night. There was also some marginally severe hail of around one inch in diameter that was reported with those heavier storms. And it was just this past Monday that snow was falling over much of the area with up to 3 inches along the OK/KS state line. That's Oklahoma weather in the Springtime.

Anyway, another round of showers/storms is quickly moving on to the SE this morning and by afternoon most of us will be left with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. That will result in a very warm afternoon with temperatures well into the 70s. As things heat up, another round of showers/storms are expected to be developing late in the day and as a weak front moves southward overnight will produce a 60% chance of showers/storms for tonight and into the morning hours of Sunday. Some of these storms will also be capable of producing hail up to severe limits which by definition is an inch or more in diameter.

The timing of the overnight convection and its extent into the Easter morning sunrise time frame suggests that there will be at least some locations, particularly for the more southern counties that will see Easter get off to a wet start. However, by afternoon that activity should have moved on out leaving us with partly cloudy afternoon skies and light northerly winds behind the weak front. Since this is not much more than a wind shift, then Easter Sunday afternoon will still be warm with afternoon highs expected to be back into the 70s.

Monday will be a different story though as a stronger cold front will be pushing across the state during the morning hours. The conditions with this system have been changing with each model run, but it still looks like Monday will be cloudy with showers, light rain, and possibly even some thunder during the day. The timing of the cold front now looks to be a little slower with southerly winds first thing in the morning shifting to gusty northerly winds as the front moves through. Thus, morning temperatures will likely be around 50 or so and there may be some warming into the 50s before the colder arrives. By late afternoon we should see temperatures dropping back into the 40s so an inverted thermometer still looks likely.

After that, there is considerable uncertainty in how to handle a disturbance aloft that is currently located in the Pacific Ocean. Various solutions range from cold, wet weather for Tue/Wed to cool conditions with only a few showers during that time frame. For now will side with the colder, wetter solution and there may even be some showers linger into Thursday. All the longer range guidance agrees on much warmer conditions by the coming weekend though.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot