Spring Springs Back After Hiatus

The last couple days have been reminiscent of mid-winter in Oklahoma, not only confusing our sense of the new season, but stunting our blooming or newly-planted vegetation. Hopefully you haven't lost any plants due to the most recent killing freezes, but if you have, it's a tough lesson in the fleeting nature of true spring weather this time of year. March is still a time of transition and winter is hanging on a bit longer than usual. Fortunately, warmer, wetter weather lies in our immediate future.

We just had the coldest morning in over a month in Tulsa with a low of 22°. Temperatures have bottomed out and we start the climb to more seasonable weather today. After one more sub-freezing morning throughout Green Country Wednesday, we are switching gears in a big way. As high pressure drifts to the east, south winds return at the surface, drawing up some much-anticipated warmer air. Those south winds will also bring up some much-needed moisture to Oklahoma from the Gulf of Mexico.

There are no major storm systems for the rest of the week, but weak impulses in the rather zonal flow in the jet stream will enable showers and storms to fire up daily along a nearly stalled-out surface frontal boundary right over us. Our chances of rain begin Thursday and last all the way till Easter Sunday. Friday and Saturday appear to be the wettest days with a small risk of isolated severe storms. A slightly stronger piece of mid-level energy will clear the stalled out storm system Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will end the off-and-on rain chances for the late-week period, meaning, much of Easter Sunday appears to be drier, mild, and rather pleasant if current trends hold!

The good news in all of this is further drought relief. The entire state remains in some degree of drought and we are banking on good rainfall this spring to restore our reservoirs if we want to be in good shape further down the road. The first attached map shows the 7-day rainfall total projection. It's a great outlook as this unsettled pattern should yield between 1 and nearly 3 inches of rain for our region!

While the wet weather will wane (how's that for alliteration) for a short spell, the mild temperatures hold on a day or two longer. The big question lies with a slow-moving upper-level low that will enter into our realm early next week. A more southerly track would allow colder air to spill southward again, keeping us on the cold side of the system like this past one. Our computer models have been flip-flopping between the extremes of wintry weather to severe storms. Usually, the truth lies between them, but it shows that plenty of uncertainty for next week remains. The most recent trend is for another significant cool-down along with a rainy passage of the storm system. It's a believable trend, but being April at that point, wintry precipitation would be hard to come by. The Climate Prediction Center believes this trend valid also as shown in the second attached map for 1 to 2 weeks out from now.

In summation, warmer, more seasonable weather is returning. Daily rain chances come back late this week, hopefully not putting a damper on too many Easter egg hunts. And finally, spring weather may again be hard to come by as we head into April. So, don't store those winter clothes after tomorrow morning, winter may not be entirely through with us yet.

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