Accumulating Snow Tonight, Continued Much Colder Than Normal.

As always, the devil is in the details and the developing storm system that will be impacting our weather overnight tonight is throwing a few curve balls.  Up until the morning data run, most of the guidance was suggesting that any accumulating snow would be primarily on up into KS and MO for tonight and into the day Sunday.  The guidance coming in now is more suggestive that accumulating snow will be further south….at least some of the guidance is.  One of the models we routinely monitor (the NAM) is keeping the accumulating snowfall on up into KS and MO, but as of right now it is an outlier.  The other guidance that has come in so far brings more snow further south with the potential for 4+ inches along the OK/KS state line and 2+ inches along hwy 412 and lesser amounts further south.

The cold, dreary, drizzly conditions of today will be replaced by colder, dreary, windy conditions for tonight and Sunday.  Once the storm system aloft moves east, the attendant surface low will also move on eastward and it is on the backside of this system that the snow will be developing in the strong cold air advection on the back side.  This transition should be taking place after midnight tonight with rain/drizzle changing over to snow and ending from W-E during the Sunday morning time frame.

Since temperatures will be holding right around the freezing mark through the event, and since soil temperatures are generally in the mid 40s right now(see the soil temperature map on the right), then there will be some melting taking place as the snow falls.  After the snow ends by mid-late morning, temperatures will only warm into the lower 40s along with gusty NW winds making it feel much colder.

Much below normal temperatures will then prevail into the coming work week with morning lows in the 20s and daytime highs in the 40s to near 50.  At least we should see some sunshine Monday and mostly sunny skies will help to moderate temperatures by mid-week.  Also, our winds will finally return to a more southerly direction by the end of the day Wednesday which will also help to warm things up until the next cool front arrives along about Saturday.  That will also bring with it a chance of showers/storms so the coming Easter weekend looks like it could be rather unsettled at this time.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot