Wednesday Morning Update

Our weather will undergo a pattern change for the next few days with a robust warming trend likely for Thursday and Friday.  A surface ridge of high pressure near the area today will keep our afternoon highs in the upper 50s with a light east or northeast wind this morning before backing to a southeast wind late today.  We'll have mainly sunshine but a few high clouds will be possible.  

The main issue for the next few days will be the temperatures and how high to forecast the afternoon readings.  We have opted to go on the high side based on the expected southwest surface winds and relatively dry air in the lower levels.  This should allow readings to move to almost 80 by Friday along with gusty southwest winds.  The fire danger will become elevated despite some recent rainfall last weekend.  

This weekend will be the next chance for a few showers or even thunderstorms as both the EURO and the GFS are now somewhat on the same page regarding the next front.  This front will enter northern OK Saturday morning before stalling a few hours and then moving southward Saturday evening.  Saturday afternoon highs should still hit the lower 70s but south winds will shift to the northeast later in the day as the boundary oozes southward.  A capping inversion (warm air aloft) will suppress frontal thunderstorms but some post frontal ( behind the front) precipitation will be possible late Saturday evening into pre-dawn Sunday.  We have this pop currently at 40%. The last run of the EURO keeps the precip too far north to impact our area Sunday morning while the GFS continues to offer a shot of storms for the morning hours across the far NE quadrant of the state.  We'll not make any changes to our ongoing forecast and keep the pop at 40%. Temps on Sunday will cool to near normal readings with highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s along with north winds.  

 The Monday forecast may be a little tricky.  A morning surge of south winds is possible as a fast developing surface low forms across northwestern OK.  This low may also allow the boundary to waffle northward into southern Kansas for a few hours before moving southward across the area Monday morning or early afternoon.  A few showers or storms may be possible Monday afternoon across extreme northeastern OK.  Slightly cooler air will slide southward late Monday and will stick around Tuesday and possibly Wednesday across the northern third of the state.  Another system will develop and move across the northern half of the state by Thursday or Friday with a chance of storms.  The next week (spring break week in Oklahoma) will be somewhat normal with a cool start, a mild finish, and a chance of storms Monday and then around Friday.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 61 at 4:22pm.

The normal daily average high is 61 and the low is 39.

The daily records include a high of92 from 1967 and a low of 12 from 1948.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

I'll also be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.

You'll also hear me on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliate stations across the state with regional and statewide forecasts through early afternoon. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV