Friday Morning Update

The next 24 to 36 hours will be dominated by the approach of a mid-level trough bringing a chance of rain and storms to the region.  A few passing showers will be a slight possibility today and tonight as warm moist air streams northward in advance of this system.  High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s along with south winds at 10 to 25 mph. 

 The local radars are painting some returns this morning across southern OK, but these echoes are mainly mid-level and will not be expected to reach the ground this morning.  Later this afternoon or evening, a few showers or even isolated storms would be possible across extreme northern OK and southeastern Kansas but will keep the pops around 20%.  Today will be cloudy, windy, and mild with temps slightly above normal.

Saturday the main upper level features draws near the region and showers and storms are expected to develop across western Ok Saturday morning through midday as a dry line type feature moves west to east.  The timing of the system for eastern OK seems to be increasing with each run.  This means our time window of opportunity may begin from 1pm Saturday and last through around 1am Sunday morning.  The severe weather threat is not zero but will be somewhat low due to the lack of surface instability.  Shear profiles are somewhat elevated in the data and a few strong to severe storms cant totally be ruled out.  A cold front will trail the dry line for most of the day Saturday before catching up around the late evening hours.  Northwest winds will arrive pre-dawn Sunday taking the storms and low level moisture away from the state.  Temps Sunday could stay in the upper 40s for afternoon highs, but I'll keep the high at 50 for this forecast update.

I also need to mention the outlier of the group.  The EURO and GFS are very close together ( in the short term) with rain and storm chances with this system.  The NAM has continued to be the outlier of the family and is relativity dry with the Saturday evening time period for most of our area.  At this point, we're going to disregard most of the NAM output, and will continue to side with the GFS-EURO blend. 

The main upper level system may still develop a few sprinkles or snow showers late Sunday night into early Monday morning as it clears the NE OK area, but this probability will remain around 10%.  I'll keep it off the big map but will make a few mentions on air this morning regarding this long shot scenario.  

The data will support a warming trend for much of the week with 60s for daytime highs likely.  We may see some 70s by Friday.  There could be a weak boundary oozing into northern Ok Wednesday, but any cooler air will more than likely stay in southern Kansas.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV