Monday Morning Update

Monday, February 25th 2013, 4:15 am

This discussion is centered on our main forecast area, northeastern OK, eastern OK, extreme southeastern Kansas and a small part of NW Arkansas. The post time is 3:15AM. 

We're tracking a major winter storm that will impact a very large portion of the nation for the next several days, including today and tomorrow morning for the state of Oklahoma.  The main issue this morning for most of our area will not be snow, but rain and thunderstorms.  Colder air will not arrive until later this afternoon and tonight, and that's when the rain will begin changing over to snow across portion of northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  Areas to our northwest will see snow developing during the morning to midday hours with blizzard conditions unfolding across the western and central portions of the state. Blizzard warnings are underway at this hour for these areas.  The only counties in our immediate area currently under blizzard warnings include Osage county.  At this hour the Tulsa county area is not included in winter storm warnings or blizzard warnings.  I'll encourage you to check the top of the web page for the very latest official county status regarding watches and warnings that may be issued by our friends from the National Weather Service.  I would assume a winter storm advisory will be needed later today and tonight for the Tulsa and surrounding areas with winter storm warnings required for some counties north and west of Tulsa.  

Temps are in the 40s now but will begin falling into the lower 30s by late this afternoon as the surface low begins moving across the Red River Valley.  Heavy precipitation will be north and northwest of the low. Our favored window for winter weather development will be late tonight as temps in the lower to mid-levels of the atmosphere will support the transition from rain to snow.  This system is extremely dynamic and will attempt to entrain dry air into the mid-level of the storm later tonight.  This will act to limit snow production across extreme southeastern and east central OK, but locations along and northwest of I-44 will have decent shot of seeing accumulations from 2 to 4 inches of snow.  Locations from OKC to Stillwater to Pawnee to northern Osage county to northern Washington County OK could see snow totals from 4 to 6 inches in spots.  Locations across far western and northwestern OK into southwestern and central Kansas could see snowfall over 8 to 12 inches.  Strong winds in the 20 to 40 mph range will create blowing snow to our west, and that's the reason blizzard warnings are posted for the areas to the west and northwest of our immediate area.   

Travel conditions across our immediate area will be deteriorating from late tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday morning along and northwest of the I-44 corridor.  By 7am to 10am tomorrow, we anticipate our system to be quickly moving away from state with slowly improving weather conditions.  Temps will remain cold Tuesday with highs in the 30s.   

Temperatures for the rest of the week appear cold with north winds remaining through most of the 7 day package.  Morning lows in the 20s will be followed by highs in the upper 30s Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday lows in the lower 20s will be followed by highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s.    

Winter storms can rapidly change.  A difference of even 50 miles with the main track of the system can change snowfall to rain transition times, and accumulations.  We'll be posting additional updates on Facebook and twitter throughout the day with updates and changes if needed. 

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 2:58pm.

The normal high is 56 and the low is 34.

Daily records include a high of 82 recorded in 1917.  A low of 10 was recorded on this date in 1965.


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Have a super great day!


Alan Crone