Thursday Morning Update

This discussion centers mainly across the region of northern and eastern OK.  It's being posted at 2:50AM.   

The winter storm continues to move across the state this morning, but instead of snow like we received yesterday morning, the main threat for the next few hours will be the potential for a mix of freezing rain and sleet across extreme northern OK, northwestern Arkansas, southern Missouri, and a small area of east central OK.  Temperatures this morning are very close to freezing near Tulsa, while areas north and northeast are below freezing.  Locations south of Tulsa remain in the mid-30s.   There will be  chance of some additional snowfall this morning, but mainly across portions of Washington, Osage, Pawnee, and adjacent counties west along the OK-Kansas state line.  Thunderstorms will also be likely this morning, including the potential for some hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

The main upper level system currently west of the area is rapidly lifting to the northeast this morning.  This has allowed a small layer of warm air just above the surface to move northward into southern and east central OK.  Surface winds have backed from the southeast overnight and will increase speeds in the 10 to 25 mph range during the next few hours.  The net impact should be to bring rain and some thunderstorm activity to portions of eastern OK between now and noon.  Areas north of Tulsa may experience some light freezing rain for a small time period pre-dawn.  Locations across northwestern Arkansas into central Arkansas may experience significant icing through the midday time period and ice storm warnings are posted for these areas.  Some locations of extreme east central OK have been upgraded to winter storm warning due to temperatures hovering near freezing for the next few hours.  Please check the updated watch and warning status at the top of this web page for the very latest.  

As the main system begins to pull away from the state, we'll see our winds changing from the southeast to the northwest by midday to early afternoon with wind speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range. Most of the precip should be ending around noon to 3pm across the region. 

Temps tonight and early Friday morning will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s with Friday afternoon highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s.  A mix of clouds with sunshine will be common Friday, but north winds will blow in the 10 to 15 mph range for the first half of the day.   

The data continues to support a slight chance of light precip for the Saturday time period as a weak wave moves across the northern half of the state.  This wave will have little in the way of moisture, but I'll continue to keep a slight mention of some light sprinkles or flurries Saturday morning as the disturbance quickly slides across the region.  Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the lower 20s with afternoon highs in the mid-40s.  Winds will be from the east or northeast for the first half of the day with southeast winds by midday.  

Sunday another fast moving system will be nearing the central and southern plains.  This will result in gusty southeast winds in the 15 to 25 mph range but temperatures will move from morning lows in the 30s to afternoon highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s.  This fast moving system will enter the region either late Sunday night or early Monday with a slight chance of showers or a few storms.  If the system does move across the area overnight, there may be a chance for some light sleet or snow.  If the system does not enter the region until Monday afternoon, a few showers or thunder will more occur.  Temps behind the system will be in the 40s for highs both Tuesday and Wednesday.  GFS and EURO data have both suggested the potential for another winter storm around Wednesday or Thursday of next week but both sets of model suggestions currently place the higher threat for winter precip across far southern Ok and north Texas.  We'll keep you posted as this system continues to be modeled.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll also be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter on the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.  You may also hear my statewide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News affiliates through the midday time period.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV