Thursday Morning Update

Temps are cold this morning with readings in the 20s and 30s across many areas.  Daytime highs will move into the mid and upper 50s along with mostly sunny conditions for the first half of the day.  Increasing clouds colder air will arrive late this afternoon into the evening as a push of cold air arrives across the area.  

The abundant sunshine yesterday afternoon took care of most of the snow that fell across northern OK.  Only a very small area of snow is on the ground this morning across part of Osage county.  Areas of west central OK will continue to have snow on the ground for the next two days.  

Our upper air flow is from the northwest and will drive a surface boundary into the area today bringing another round of cold air for Friday and for most of Saturday.  A mid-level short wave trough will approach the area Friday and not clear the state until Saturday morning.  This feature could provide enough lift in the atmosphere to squeeze out a few snow flurries Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday morning before the lift moves away from the state.  The air mass will be sufficiently cold for this to be all snow.  No significant accumulation would be expected, but a dusting in a few spots can't totally be ruled out. The moisture content will be low and flurries may be more likely.   

There remains a little controversy and just how cold this air mass will be for our area.  I tend to believe it's going to be slightly colder than computer model suggestions for both Friday and Saturday.  I have kept the Friday high in the lower to mid-40s, but have hedged upward closer to the computer numbers for Saturday.  I would rather stick with a high near 47 for Saturday and let it roll.  

Sunday the full force return flow will occur as the next upper level wave approaches from the west.  This will cause a surface area of pressure to develop across southeastern Colorado and our winds will crank up from the south and southeast Sunday in the 20 to 30 mph range.  Low level moisture will attempt to roll back into the area Sunday night into Monday as the system moves eastward.  This will create a chance for thunderstorms Monday, but the higher likelihood will be across extreme eastern Ok and western Arkansas where the deeper moisture will have a chance to be in place before the main forcing arrives Monday afternoon. I'll keep a 20 pop on the map.

Tuesday looks cool but not cold.  

The pattern may also support a major system nearing the area by late next week that could bring a significant chance of thunderstorms, some severe, to the southern plains by next Friday or Saturday.  Stay tuned. 

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 55.

The normal daily high is 53 and the low is 31.

Daily records include a high of 80 from 1910  and a low of -10 from 1905.

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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.  I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates today through the noon hour with weather updates.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV