Tuesday is still looking very interesting and continues to pose the primary challenges for this forecast period. As you can see by the QPF map on the right which is valid through the Tuesday time period, we will be wet with the potential for another half inch or more of precipitation. However, it is the precipitation type that continues to be the main challenge and the data that has been coming in today is starting to bring that into better focus.
There remains some uncertainty as the eventual positioning of the main storm track aloft may change the parameters yet again. But, as of right now it appears that the lack of cold air near the surface which was mentioned this morning and the relatively warm soil temperatures should combine to keep this mostly a rain or rain/snow event until Tuesday night when there will be a window of opportunity for a changeover to all snow. By that time, the precipitation will be winding down and this combination of circumstances should keep snowfall totals to around an inch or two the way it looks now. For our neighbors in NW OK and portions of KS, colder air will be in place longer and there will be the potential for more significant snowfall accumulations. Again, any change in the placement of the main storm center of just a degree or two could move that rain/snow line as much as 50-100 miles in any one direction with obvious implications regarding the amount of wintry precipitation that falls.
Ahead of all that, Monday is looking pleasant enough with lots of sunshine for most of the day as clouds will be moving in late or that night. Temperatures will be cold to start with most of us at or below freezing but moderating into the lower 50s during the day along with light northerly winds.
Tuesday will be pretty much in the 30s all day with some low 40s for the more southern counties. In other words a cold rain with the potential for the rain/snow mix late and the changeover to snow that night before it all ends by early Wednesday.
Wednesday and Thursday should then be mostly sunny and fairly seasonal with respect to temperatures. That is until later in the day Thursday when a stronger cold front brings some colder air for the Friday/Saturday time frame. Also, there continues to be a weak signal suggesting at least the possibility of flurries on Friday. By Sunday, a return to southerly winds will initiate a brief warming trend.
Bottom line is that the most interesting day of this forecast cycle continues to be Tuesday and that forecast will continue to be refined as updated data becomes available. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.