Thursday Morning Update

A cold front arrives today bringing a round of showers with a few thunderstorms and highs in the 50s.  Another system will be likely Saturday evening into Sunday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible.  Colder air will arrive early next week. 

The moisture in the lower levels has been increasing across the state during the last 36 hours.  Dense fog has been a big problem for the past two days, but this morning fog has been confined to a few spots across central OK.  Showers and storms will attempt to form as a surface cold front slides across the state by early to mid-morning.  The upper air dynamics will remain low and the instability in the atmosphere is also expected to be rather meager.  This means severe weather will not be expected this morning even though a few storms may produce very small non severe hail.   

The cold front will move across the Tulsa region around noon with temps moving to near 60 before falling into the mid-50s by later this afternoon with north winds.  We'll try to highlight the difference between daytime highs and 5pm temps on the maps this morning.  Basically, take some rain gear and a jacket.  You'll need both.

Friday will feature a crisp fall day with temps slightly above the seasonal average for morning lows and afternoon highs.  Mostly sunny sky will be expected with light northeast winds.  Friday should be a good weather day! 

The weekend will feature cloudy and windy conditions with a major upper level trough drawing near the area by Saturday night into Sunday midday.  Strong south winds will increase low level moisture.  A surface low will develop to our northwest. A dry line will establish across far western Ok Saturday evening and begin moving eastward as the upper air trough approaches the state.  Showers and storms will develop Saturday night and could persist into Sunday morning across part but not all of northern OK and southern Kansas.  A few of these could be severe due to the increase of low level moisture and the impact of deep layer shear approaching the area. The dry line will advance eastward and approach the highway 69 corridor by early afternoon eventually taking most of the storms to the southeastern OK and western Ark areas by late around Noon to early afternoon.  Temps Sunday will top out in the 60s.  The current forecast parameters for severe storms would favor areas along the Red River into North Texas, but we'll be watching these data closely for the next two days.  

Another upper air trough may slide over the area Tuesday into Wednesday.  GFS and EURO data have now offered more of a consensus for this possibility, and would also lead to the possibility of some snow showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning across northern OK, including near the Tulsa metro.  The EURO is not quit as bullish on the precip potential and since we're several days away from this system, I'll not make a big statement today regarding the winter weather potential as data will continue to change over the next few days with specific placement of synoptic features. 

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 66 recorded at 1:31pm.

The normal daily high is 51 and the low is 29.

Records include a high of 78 from 1909 and a low of 0 from 1933.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll also be discussing the weather today on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliates across the state.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV