Wednesday Morning Update

Temperatures are close to the local dew point this morning and dense fog has once again formed across portions of southern OK.  We may have a few fog issues across the northern part of the state this morning.  Our weather pattern will remain active through the weekend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances.   

The last few runs of the RUC and RAP indicate high RH values across most of the area through the 10am to 11am hour.  Dense fog is a high probability across a large portion of the state, but so far this morning, the Tulsa county area has been void of the issue.  The RAP does bring some fog potential into the Tulsa area around 7am or so.  We'll of course keep you posted, but you should remain aware of rapidly changing visibilities across the state this morning.  Fog could lower visibility in some locations to less than 100ft.  

We may have a very small window for some sunshine today, but we anticipate increasing clouds later which may keep us in a mostly cloudy condition for the day.  If this is the case, our daytime highs of the upper 60s may be too high.  The RAW NAM is hinting at upper 50s (which is probably too low) but we may need to think about some lower to mid-60s for highs.   

Our first system will arrive basically tomorrow, but we'll begin the chance for a few showers or storms later tonight across far southeastern OK and north Texas as low level moisture streams northward into the area.  Some of the operational models have continued to hint at this scenario for a few days.  The higher chances will arrive Thursday through midday across the northern and eastern third of the state as a surface cold front moves across the state.  Showers and some thunder will be likely along with mostly cloudy and cool conditions.  Highs should top out in the upper 50s or lower 60s Thursday along with north winds around 15 mph.  It does not appear that we'll be in the running for severe weather tomorrow.  The instability will be rather low, the shear is not impressive, and the main dynamics appear separated to the north from the state.  A few storms could produce some small pea sized hail, but no significant severe weather is currently anticipated. 

Friday we'll be in-between systems as the next stronger upper level wave approaches the area.  We continue to think the GFS may have the better timing and positioning of the surface features meaning our best chance for storms will occur Saturday night late into Sunday mid-morning as a dry line and cold front eventually move across the state. This system may produce some severe weather.  We'll keep you posted on specifics as the time period draws the system near the region.  The air mass behind the departing system is not exceptionally cold, but we do expect temps to drop into the upper 40s or lower 50s early next week for a few days.   

The GFS continues to hint at bringing a pocket of cold air aloft over the state Tuesday with some light snow potential.  We're not ready to send out the cavalry, but I will add a chance of precip to the Tuesday forecast time period.

Our high in Tulsa yesterday was 69 at 3:12pm.

The normal average daily high is 51 and the low is 29

Records include a high of  73 from 2007, 1999, and 1925.  The low is 4 recorded in 1985.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News.  I'll also on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network stations through the midday with weather updates. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV