Thursday Morning Update

Welcome to the last day in January.  Hard to believe that we're almost to February, and while we still typically have plenty of winter time possibilities ahead of us from a historical perspective, we're starting to see more warming trends in the data, and this will hold true from Sunday into early next week.  Before we get to the weekend, we'll have a few minor systems impacting our area, including another cold front moving across the area today.  

Today we'll be in the running for mostly sunny conditions as moisture in most levels of the atmosphere will be very low.  Temps should be close to the computer suggestions ( NAM-MOS output) but the timing of the cold front today should cause some locations across northern OK to hit the max around noon with falling temps by this afternoon.  Basically some locations north of Tulsa will hit the upper 40s by noon but fall into the upper 30s by late today along with gusty north winds.  The Tulsa metro should hit near 51 by noon to 1pm but falling into the mid or upper 40s by 4pm-5pm.  Locations south of I-40 will see temps moving into the upper 50s for highs and not see the temps fall until around sunset. 

Friday will end up on the cold side with morning lows in the teens and highs in the lower or mid-40s before warming air begins to arrive into early next week.  

The weekend will start with some mid and upper level clouds moving from the northwest to the southeast as a mid-level vort max slides across the central plains.  The data, while keeping the precip output near zero, has occasionally shown signals that could be interpreted for a slight chance of showers Saturday morning near the area.  We have been mentioning this slight chance and I'll continue to do so on this blog post and on air verbally, but I don't think I'll add a bonefide precip chance to the big board 7 day planner.  Even if we do see a few sprinkles or showers Saturday, it would be extremely brief and would quickly exit the area.  Temps Saturday will be in the 50s and we should see decreasing clouds after the midday period.  The wind will be relatively light. 

Sunday begins the warm up with the upper air flow allowing warming air to move across the southern plains including the northeastern OK area.  We'll be flirting with lower 60s Sunday and mid 60s early next week. The pressure gradient may increase around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week with stout south winds.  This would begin the process of increasing low level moisture ahead of the next system of interest that may approach the area about this time next week.  

Our high in Tulsa yesterday was 42.

The normal daily average is 50 and the low is 28.

Daily records include a high of 76 from 1989 and 1911.  The record low is -5 recorded in 1979.

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Thank you very much for stopping by to read the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

I'll be discussing the weather with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa, and also on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network Affiliate stations throughout the state this morning and afternoon.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone