Thursday Morning Update

Welcome to the warming trend!  Highs today will be in the upper 40s along with breezy northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.  Sunshine should be abundant with very little cloud cover, if any at all. The breeze will create a wind chill and big coat weather will be the call, but our highs will continue to climb over the next few days with Friday temps in the mid-50s and nearing 60 Saturday.  The warming trend will hit a roadblock Sunday as the first of two fronts will move across the area. 

The upper air pattern has finally started to change.  The major long wave trough that has been located to our west for the past 5 days is now east of the state. The closed low at the base of the trough is moving eastward producing snow across portions of the Deep South this morning.   

A mild weather pattern will exist for the next few days with the above noted warm air making a run at the region.  Sunday the northern stream will bring a surface cold front southward and this will knock our temps back to near normal.  We'll see Sunday morning lows in the mid or upper 20s followed by highs near 47.  Sunday night a second surge of much colder air will quickly approach the area.  This front will bring another arctic air mass ( shallow in nature) back to the state with Monday morning lows near 20 and afternoon highs around freezing.  The moisture content will be very low, but a few snow flurries or brief snow showers can't be ruled out, but this probability will remain around 10%.  I'll probably not even place this on the big 7 day planner. 

The GFS attempts to erode the air mass too quickly Tuesday and brings warmer air rapidly back to the state, but this solution is probably wrong.  Past experience with shallow arctic air masses in January tend to last longer than models will suggest.  We'll keep the numbers below the computer suggestions for Tuesday and then bring the highs back into the lower 50s by Wednesday. 

Model data diverges after Wednesday with the EURO sliding a front across the area Thursday and the GFS waiting another day or so.  The fast progressive and dry flow of the atmosphere would favor another passage around Thursday of next week, but we don't see any major precipitation makers heading in our direction for the next 10 days.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 48 recorded at 4:36pm.

Our normal high is 48 and the low is 27.

Daily records include a high of 73 recorded on this date in 1952

and the low of -3 from 1930.

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Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion.

I greatly appreciate you stopping by this morning!

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV