Tuesday Morning Update

We'll expect cloudy and cool conditions today with highs in the mid-50s.  Rain chances increase late tonight into Wednesday midday as the next system draws near the state.  

The split flow regime continues with a strong upper level system approaching the southern stream during the next 48 hours.  A northern stream system will drop into the state this weekend with much colder air. 

The clouds will continue to stream across the area this afternoon in advance of our next upper level system currently located across the desert southwest.  Rain and thunderstorm activity will form across south Texas this morning and move northward throughout the day and approach north Texas by this afternoon.  Late tonight into early Wednesday, some shower activity will be possible across the Red River Valley, but our chances across northern OK may hold off until tomorrow morning.  

The upper level system is expected to dive out of the southwest and across the Mexican plateau today ejecting northeast across central Ok Wednesday evening and into the Midwest Thursday afternoon.  The best rain and storm chances for our immediate area will occur Wednesday midday through early evening ending  by Thursday morning.  Model data output suggests some 1 to 2 inch rainfall will be likely across far southeastern OK with some totals approaching an inch near Tulsa.   

The instability factor across the northern third of the state will be very low.  No severe weather is expected and thunder will limited to the southeastern portion of the state.  

Temperatures today will more than likely reach the lower or even mid-50s across the region before the rain and cloud cover knocks the temps down near 50 late Wednesday afternoon.  

After the system exits the state Thursday morning,  the temps should quickly move into the upper 50s Thursday and to near 70 Friday along with gusty south winds as the next strong upper level system drops through the middle part of the nation.  The weekend system will arrive in the northern stream bringing much colder air to the state sometime Saturday afternoon or evening.  The moisture content will be increasing directly ahead of the boundary, but will more than likely be positioned too far east to impact our area.  We'll have a very slight chance (10%) for a shower or storm along the boundary Saturday morning.  

If the system slows down even a half day or so, the strong to severe threat may extend into eastern Ok near and east of the highway 69 corridor, but these types of cold fronts usually arrive faster and not slower.   

Our official high in Tulsa yesterday was  52 recorded at 3:21pm.

The normal daily average high is 47 and the low is 28.

Daily records include a high of 75 from 2003 and the low of -5 recorded on this date in 1988.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.  I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliate stations throughout the state with weather updates this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV